the downgrade at 11.. hmm. dunno if i would have done that. some buoys near the florida coast are still intermittently reporting winds 30-35 kt, which has in the past been used to support an inland system still being at storm strength. center is moving over lake okeechobee around now. it's about half way done with its florida trek. hasn't spun down appreciably and probably will come off this evening near melbourne at roughly the current intensity. if it begins strengthening right away, i'd expect the tropical storm warning section between the edisto river mouth and cape fear to go up to a hurricane warning, just in case. like the official says, though, likely a tropical storm at landfall. the official has it coming ashore just northeast of charleston. that looks reasonable.. i'd place a little more emphasis in the georgetown and horry county coasts as the landfall point. betting against wilmington is always a risk, but it does sort of look like a south carolina event this time. movement through the mid-atlantic and northeast appears to be fast enough that widespread flooding shouldn't be a problem. gales might extend along the coast as far north as new jersey or long island, though, with the gradient setting up. HF 1643z30august
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