barely a closed circulation? naw, you need to go check your obs. sfc winds all around the compass. spiral banding should give away the rest. it isn't elongated or anything, just gappy on the east side and patchy right of the center. the precip from the altostratus deck on the western side near the spotty deep convection makes the pattern break up a little bit, but if you follow the shallow convection lines you can see that they're still all rotating around the center. there have been near sustained t.s. force winds in squalls near the coast in the last couple of hours, too. that sort of thing has been used in the past to maintain a tropical storm inland, where the winds are obviously below threshold due to friction (i.e., tammy over sw georgia last year). it's technically accurate. the hurricane thing is based on this: say it comes off with a pressure of 1004 mb this evening. it has 24 over water, and is in a baroclinic environment. advance 12 hrs, it's east of jax, the pressure has dropped 6-7 mb and the winds are up to 60. not the most probable solution, but not impossible. extrapolate the deepening and you've got a borderline category 1 at landfall. the middle of the t.s. warning section becomes a hurricane warning, as a precaution. i'm just saying that could happen, not that it will. HF 1508z30august
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