Quote: Since it is not too busy, would someone be willing to explain how you determine the direction? When I look at the Melbourne radar, the whole blob seems to be moving northwest. What is it that I don't get?
The direction, based off of the NHC advisories (unless there is an obvious 6-hour change) is averaged over 12 hours time. So, if the storm goes from moving NW to N, it's not reflected in the advisories for 12 hours, or until it becomes a trend.
The hurricane center works in degrees, usually. 360 degrees is north, and you can figure out which way a system is moving by looking at the center of circulation, or the "eye" if it is a hurricane.
With Ernesto, the COC is located just east of Lake Okeechobee right now, so you can track it from there on radar. The center of circulation (COC) is around 80-100 miles wide, but it's not clearly defined because it isn't a tropical storm anymore — therefore, it may be a bit hard to follow. A lot of people look at the satellite imagery of a storm, and follow the big blob of convection, which can be misleading! So, I can see where you're getting confused.
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