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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida
      Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM

can't really say right now... could be an artifact of daytime heating... but it looks like the storm is becoming better organized, if not at least holding its own. the circulation aloft is elongated east-west, but near the surface appears to remain fairly circular. still heading more or less due north, right now centered near the highlands/okeechobee county border... kissimmee river. egress point will be further north, closer to titusville or new smyrna beach, unless the track starts to lean north-northeast soon. it'll be coming off at an oblique angle to the coast, so exact timing will be hard to pinpoint... but around 10 pm eastern looks reasonable. it'll have somewhere in the 18-24 hour range over the ocean to reorganize. the pressure would only have to fall about 10 or 12 mb to get the storm up to a hurricane, and that doesn't look very unreasonable when considering the models.
if i was on the carolina coast between edisto island and cape fear, i'd prepare for a hurricane tomorrow afternoon-evening. it'll probably be a tropical storm, but a low end hurricane isn't out of the question. the threat is for a small surge, limb snapping kind of storm.. that'll maybe knock down a few trees, knock out power and all. probably nothing to evacuate for, but it could shut down communities for thursday and friday.
going to be some rain further north. most all the models either shear the system out and take a remnant nw, or keep it together on the coastal plain and work the whole mess northeast. past virginia the storm should all be on one side... strong onshore flow, heavy rain is likely in maryland, nj, pennsylvania on friday. further north on saturday.
HF 1928z30august

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 30 2006 03:29 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Over Mainland Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida dkblostnottinghamsmoney   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Wingman51   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida zacman2400   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida doug   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Larscotland   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Tampa_Lyle   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Bee-Beep   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida prideman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 30 2006 06:03 PM
. * * Surface Weather danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather edaguyinccbch   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather Tony Cristaldi   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather Tony Cristaldi   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Movement danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Yikes   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Yikes   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto dhsfireman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Movement nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Movement danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Movement nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:25 PM
. * * Maps danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:28 PM
. * * Caution danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather edaguyinccbch   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:23 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Mike   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HURRICANELONNY   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LoisCane   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida CarolinaGurl   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida craigm   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida amonty   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida amonty   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida StormHound   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Dougyd   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida mcmic40   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Sheeper   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida gailwarning   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida emackl   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Pacific Hurricane LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Bee-Beep   Wed Aug 30 2006 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida JMII   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida g-50cab   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Psyber   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida craigm   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:10 AM

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