can't really say right now... could be an artifact of daytime heating... but it looks like the storm is becoming better organized, if not at least holding its own. the circulation aloft is elongated east-west, but near the surface appears to remain fairly circular. still heading more or less due north, right now centered near the highlands/okeechobee county border... kissimmee river. egress point will be further north, closer to titusville or new smyrna beach, unless the track starts to lean north-northeast soon. it'll be coming off at an oblique angle to the coast, so exact timing will be hard to pinpoint... but around 10 pm eastern looks reasonable. it'll have somewhere in the 18-24 hour range over the ocean to reorganize. the pressure would only have to fall about 10 or 12 mb to get the storm up to a hurricane, and that doesn't look very unreasonable when considering the models. if i was on the carolina coast between edisto island and cape fear, i'd prepare for a hurricane tomorrow afternoon-evening. it'll probably be a tropical storm, but a low end hurricane isn't out of the question. the threat is for a small surge, limb snapping kind of storm.. that'll maybe knock down a few trees, knock out power and all. probably nothing to evacuate for, but it could shut down communities for thursday and friday. going to be some rain further north. most all the models either shear the system out and take a remnant nw, or keep it together on the coastal plain and work the whole mess northeast. past virginia the storm should all be on one side... strong onshore flow, heavy rain is likely in maryland, nj, pennsylvania on friday. further north on saturday. HF 1928z30august
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