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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Administrative Note
      Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM

First, I want to apologise to everyone on this board. (Ed, please let this post go through). To me, the members of this forum are like a second family and I feel my comments earlier regarding the NHC's performance with Ernesto has stirred up trouble, which I deeply regret. I had no intent of starting a debate over the integrity of the National Hurricane Center. Maybe I did not get my intended point across clearly. What I MEANT to convey was that Ernesto was a storm that, from its inception, defied virtually every forecast in both intensity and path followed. I know the folks at the Hurricane Center have the absolute best forecasters and high tech computer equipment available to assist in supplying the most accurate forecast possible. I was trying to convey that Ernesto was a system that seemed to disregard the known parameters that control storm intensity and direction of movement. Everyone must agree that the models just seemed to not be able to get a good grip on this storm, with the HUGE flip-flop from an early predicted Texas/Louisiana border-ish landfall to the final model calls for a Miami area strike.
What changed so dramatically in the atmosphere to alter so drastically the eventual forecast? Isn't the 5 day forecast error typically in the range of 300 miles? With Ernesto, the call was off by over 700 miles (estimated distance from the LA/TX border to Miami).

This same question holds true for the intensity issue. I know that Ernesto was negatively affected by the fact that the center moved over many land masses for an extended period of time, but even once the storm encountered seemingly ideal conditions over water, it simply failed to strengthen. Even Max Mayfield stated that he was mystified at the complete lack of intensification yesterday with Ernesto.

As I already stated, my intent was not to bash the NHC in any way, but I was hoping to get some input from those on this forum much more knowledgeable (you know who you are! ) as to why Ernesto just didn't play by "the rules".

Thanks for letting this post go through and again I apologise if I offended anyone with my earlier post.

--Lou

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Over Mainland Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida dkblostnottinghamsmoney   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Wingman51   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida zacman2400   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida doug   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Larscotland   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Tampa_Lyle   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Bee-Beep   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida prideman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 30 2006 06:03 PM
. * * Surface Weather danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather edaguyinccbch   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather Tony Cristaldi   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather Tony Cristaldi   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Movement danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Yikes   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Yikes   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto dhsfireman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Movement nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Movement danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Movement nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:25 PM
. * * Maps danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:28 PM
. * * Caution danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather edaguyinccbch   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:23 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Mike   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HURRICANELONNY   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LoisCane   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida CarolinaGurl   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida craigm   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida amonty   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida amonty   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida StormHound   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Dougyd   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida mcmic40   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Sheeper   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida gailwarning   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida emackl   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Pacific Hurricane LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Bee-Beep   Wed Aug 30 2006 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida JMII   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida g-50cab   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Psyber   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida craigm   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:10 AM

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