First, I want to apologise to everyone on this board. (Ed, please let this post go through). To me, the members of this forum are like a second family and I feel my comments earlier regarding the NHC's performance with Ernesto has stirred up trouble, which I deeply regret. I had no intent of starting a debate over the integrity of the National Hurricane Center. Maybe I did not get my intended point across clearly. What I MEANT to convey was that Ernesto was a storm that, from its inception, defied virtually every forecast in both intensity and path followed. I know the folks at the Hurricane Center have the absolute best forecasters and high tech computer equipment available to assist in supplying the most accurate forecast possible. I was trying to convey that Ernesto was a system that seemed to disregard the known parameters that control storm intensity and direction of movement. Everyone must agree that the models just seemed to not be able to get a good grip on this storm, with the HUGE flip-flop from an early predicted Texas/Louisiana border-ish landfall to the final model calls for a Miami area strike. What changed so dramatically in the atmosphere to alter so drastically the eventual forecast? Isn't the 5 day forecast error typically in the range of 300 miles? With Ernesto, the call was off by over 700 miles (estimated distance from the LA/TX border to Miami).
This same question holds true for the intensity issue. I know that Ernesto was negatively affected by the fact that the center moved over many land masses for an extended period of time, but even once the storm encountered seemingly ideal conditions over water, it simply failed to strengthen. Even Max Mayfield stated that he was mystified at the complete lack of intensification yesterday with Ernesto.
As I already stated, my intent was not to bash the NHC in any way, but I was hoping to get some input from those on this forum much more knowledgeable (you know who you are! ) as to why Ernesto just didn't play by "the rules".
Thanks for letting this post go through and again I apologise if I offended anyone with my earlier post.
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