guess recon will show up soon, let us know if there have been any pressure falls. i wouldn't guess so as radar organization looks about the same. on satellite the storm looks fairly organized. not like it could strengthen a whole heck of a lot, but not too bad to say the least. the nhc official track looks good. only caveat would be if deep convection started blooming and set this thing into a development slide. nothing like that as of yet. based on the tendencies i'm seeing with the small low out near 16/48, i'd think the nhc may have to start changing the tone of their outlooks on it. it has been maintaining a small area of deep convection most of today, and more scattered stuff appears to be developing on its eastern flank. it is getting closer to the islands, and under a favorable upper air environment. might become more interesting tomorrow. the wave near 33w also has a fairly well defined circulation near the itcz. neither feature threatens imminent development, but both have persisted and may eventually result in a system. the eastpac has continued active; maybe the atlantic will try to keep pace with it. the basin doesn't look to be in the throes of an mjo active surge, but doesn't look that inhospitable either... not unlikely we'll have more action in the coming days. HF 0442z31august
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