Given the latest reports that show the pressure drop of 2mb in 3hrs and wind up 5 mph in the same time, could it reach cat 1 status before landfall? Reason for commenting on this is because there seems to be a shift, however so slight, to the east and according to the GFDL model for the last few runs are now taking the storm to the north of Wilmington in the Topsail Beach area. My estimate is if comes in between Georgetown & Myrtle Beach, probably a strong TS but if it stays out say an extra 3-5 hrs to go north of Wilmington perhaps a low end cat1. The problem is they have yet to move any warnings n of Cape Lookout and if this thing decides to deepen faster than anticipated with a slight eastward componet, people in eastern NC might get more than they are anticipating. I have lived in E NC for 40+ years and have seen many storms do crazy things in a very short period of time, like Alex 2 yrs ago. People along the NC coast really need to pay close attention until its final landfall later tonight. Any thoughts?
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