florence will probably hang up near 65w. it's going to move faster than the gfs shows because that model has it snagging on the feature to the east, which isn't going to happen. the quick-out recurvature that the canadian shows is it's ticket to early escape... the gfs hanging it up then drifting straight north through a ridge fracture it creates is it's typical early-run garbage. that block in the northeast also is unlikely to hang back over the continent.. gfs has a rex further west holding intact and taking two weeks to cross the continent, which would be bizarre... with ioke recurving in the westpac right now it's going to energize the westerlies and probably punch all those little blocks the gfs is making out into shortwaves. what i see is more likely is A) florence moves faster to the west and doesn't catch the early recurvature B) the western atlantic ridge doesn't just fracture of it's own accord, holds florence in place while the trough to the north splits and C) the block shown by the gfs hanging over the northeast actually ends up in the western atlantic like the last one, and after hanging up around next weekend florence just continues west-northwest. that's where i'm laying my early bet. it may still recurve further west, but i don't think the feature shown by most of the globals getting 'florence' will do more than slow the track and bend it right for a couple of days. 'course i'll start buying the current solution of most global models if they keep showing the ridge weakening and fracturing near 60w and letting the storm ride straight out. HF 1754z04september
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 46047
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center