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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic
Mon Sep 04 2006 01:53 PM

florence will probably hang up near 65w. it's going to move faster than the gfs shows because that model has it snagging on the feature to the east, which isn't going to happen. the quick-out recurvature that the canadian shows is it's ticket to early escape... the gfs hanging it up then drifting straight north through a ridge fracture it creates is it's typical early-run garbage. that block in the northeast also is unlikely to hang back over the continent.. gfs has a rex further west holding intact and taking two weeks to cross the continent, which would be bizarre... with ioke recurving in the westpac right now it's going to energize the westerlies and probably punch all those little blocks the gfs is making out into shortwaves.
what i see is more likely is A) florence moves faster to the west and doesn't catch the early recurvature
B) the western atlantic ridge doesn't just fracture of it's own accord, holds florence in place while the trough to the north splits and C) the block shown by the gfs hanging over the northeast actually ends up in the western atlantic like the last one, and after hanging up around next weekend florence just continues west-northwest.
that's where i'm laying my early bet. it may still recurve further west, but i don't think the feature shown by most of the globals getting 'florence' will do more than slow the track and bend it right for a couple of days. 'course i'll start buying the current solution of most global models if they keep showing the ridge weakening and fracturing near 60w and letting the storm ride straight out.
HF 1754z04september

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 04 2006 01:54 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	MikeC	Mon Sep 04 2006 01:53 PM
new thread	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 05 2006 05:50 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	allan	Tue Sep 05 2006 05:28 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	SebastianLou	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:45 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	seminolesfan	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:44 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	weather_wise911	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:41 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	weather_wise911	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:39 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:38 PM
Re: Florence is looking better...but behind Flo....	Sheeper	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:24 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	allan	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:10 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 05 2006 04:02 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	doug	Tue Sep 05 2006 03:48 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	sara33	Tue Sep 05 2006 03:48 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	tpratch	Tue Sep 05 2006 03:25 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	meto23	Tue Sep 05 2006 03:16 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	doug	Tue Sep 05 2006 03:00 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 05 2006 02:33 PM
Re: Florence is looking better	Myles	Tue Sep 05 2006 01:52 PM
Florence is looking better	DrewC	Tue Sep 05 2006 01:42 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	typhoon_tip	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:48 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:46 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:38 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	madmumbler	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:37 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:26 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Psyber	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:21 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	madmumbler	Tue Sep 05 2006 10:02 AM
Re: florence fishing? or coming further west...?	JOC	Tue Sep 05 2006 08:47 AM
florence fishing? or coming further west...?	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 05 2006 02:48 AM
Good Discussion here, much to choose from re: td 6	LoisCane	Tue Sep 05 2006 12:20 AM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Storm Cooper	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:32 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	cieldumort	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:30 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	weather_wise911	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:19 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	TD06	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:17 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	BillD	Mon Sep 04 2006 09:01 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	seminolesfan	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:48 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Ed Dunham	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:42 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Hugh	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:33 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Ed Dunham	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:30 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Hugh	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:17 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Myles	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:14 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Ed Dunham	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:13 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Hugh	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:05 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	seminolesfan	Mon Sep 04 2006 08:01 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Hugh	Mon Sep 04 2006 07:04 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	Myles	Mon Sep 04 2006 06:49 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 04 2006 06:15 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	rmbjoe1954	Mon Sep 04 2006 05:24 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	LaVidaCyclone	Mon Sep 04 2006 05:02 PM
so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	LoisCane	Mon Sep 04 2006 04:53 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	ElizabethH	Mon Sep 04 2006 04:04 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	GuppieGrouper	Mon Sep 04 2006 04:02 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	Ryan	Mon Sep 04 2006 03:25 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	Hugh	Mon Sep 04 2006 03:18 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	rmbjoe1954	Mon Sep 04 2006 02:42 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 04 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	TD06	Mon Sep 04 2006 01:44 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	scottsvb	Mon Sep 04 2006 12:47 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	craigm	Mon Sep 04 2006 11:47 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	rmbjoe1954	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:39 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	LoisCane	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:00 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 04 2006 09:21 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	rmbjoe1954	Mon Sep 04 2006 06:00 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	nl	Mon Sep 04 2006 05:44 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	dhsfireman	Mon Sep 04 2006 04:23 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	ltpat228	Mon Sep 04 2006 04:03 AM
Primary LLC and Track	cieldumort	Mon Sep 04 2006 01:48 AM
Re: Hey Tip...	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 04 2006 01:17 AM
Re: Hey Tip...	dem05	Mon Sep 04 2006 12:55 AM
Re: Hey Tip...	hurricaneguy	Mon Sep 04 2006 12:13 AM
Re: Hey Tip...	rosehill	Mon Sep 04 2006 12:00 AM
Re: Hey Tip...	ElizabethH	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:44 PM
Hey Tip...	LoisCane	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:34 PM
Re: Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise.	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:43 PM
Re: they mention timing....	Storm Cooper	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:38 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:34 PM
Re: they mention timing....	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:33 PM
they mention timing....	LoisCane	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:31 PM
Re: Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise.	ElizabethH	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:28 PM
Thanks Ed. Models called this last week..it's not a surprise.	LoisCane	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:19 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:07 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	inHISgrip	Sun Sep 03 2006 09:02 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	hornedcow	Sun Sep 03 2006 08:55 PM
Re: TD6	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 03 2006 08:36 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Sep 03 2006 08:32 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	dkblostnottinghamsmoney	Sun Sep 03 2006 08:29 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	BillD	Sun Sep 03 2006 08:16 PM
TD6	NewWatcher	Sun Sep 03 2006 08:08 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	madmumbler	Sun Sep 03 2006 07:53 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Clark	Sun Sep 03 2006 07:47 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic	BillD	Sun Sep 03 2006 07:46 PM
TD6...maybe an east coast swell maker?	richisurfs	Sun Sep 03 2006 06:43 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	craigm	Sun Sep 03 2006 06:22 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Ryan	Sun Sep 03 2006 05:56 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	cieldumort	Sun Sep 03 2006 05:12 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	cieldumort	Sun Sep 03 2006 05:09 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Lee-Delray	Sun Sep 03 2006 04:44 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Bee-Beep	Sun Sep 03 2006 04:35 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Rabbit	Sun Sep 03 2006 04:14 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Jamiewx	Sun Sep 03 2006 03:47 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	cieldumort	Sun Sep 03 2006 03:32 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	leetdan	Sun Sep 03 2006 02:59 PM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	craigm	Sun Sep 03 2006 02:37 PM
Re: Between a rock and a hard place	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 03 2006 01:59 PM
Re: Between a rock and a hard place	harmlc.ath.cx	Sun Sep 03 2006 01:42 PM
Between a rock and a hard place	Clark	Sun Sep 03 2006 11:55 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	madmumbler	Sun Sep 03 2006 11:25 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	tornado00	Sun Sep 03 2006 11:05 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	Josh Delsman	Sun Sep 03 2006 11:01 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	MikeC	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:57 AM
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean	tornado00	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:38 AM

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