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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2006 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Out of Africa
      Mon Sep 11 2006 08:45 PM

A potent tropical wave exited the west African coast earlier today. It is a large system centered near 10N 19W at 12/00Z. Wind shear is anticipated to be light for its journey westward.

The GFS has overplayed the intensity of the trough that the model depicts as creating a weakness in the Atlantic ridge near 60W in about a week. The 18Z run of the model takes the associated cold front and moves it south through the entire Florida peninsula late on the 16th - and thats not at all likely to happen - far too early in the fall season for a frontal event to sweep southward through the entire state.

This suggests that the trough itself has been over-emphasized by the model and is not likely to cause enough of a weakness in the ridge to capture what what will likely be the eventual 'Helene'. With low shear and no apparent upper-level obstructions, this system seems to have the initial potential to become a significant storm - but thats still a long way down the road. For now, lets just say that this wave has an excellent chance for further development - with the possibility of a long westward trek.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Interest - Out of Africa Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 11 2006 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Out of Africa vpbob21   Tue Sep 12 2006 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - Out of Africa cieldumort   Tue Sep 12 2006 03:30 AM

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