Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Saturday (09/30) 11AM Update
Isaac now a minimal hurricane with 65 knot sustained winds - moving to the northwest at 5 knots and located over 650 miles east southeast of Bermuda. Isaac expected to turn more northerly and eventually north northeasterly in advance of a strong frontal system now off the east coast. Isaac, as a strong extratropical system, expected to head off into the north central Atlantic and may brush extreme eastern Canada with some squally weather next week.

As September comes to a close, nothing of any real concern going on in the rest of the Atlantic basin. Invest 97L has faded and another wave in the southern Caribbean Sea has weakened. One remaining large wave over Africa at 30/12Z near 12N 6E, however, it may not even make it to the African west coast - the Cape Verde environment has changed and CV activity is over for this season.

Perhaps one more baroclinically induced hybrid before this season ends - but not too much of a chance for even that type of a system to evolve as the SSTs begin to cool and the subtropical jet intensifies. The week ahead (perhaps two) looks quiet.
ED

Thursday Update - 11AM
At 11AM NHC will upgrade TD 9 to Tropical Storm Isaac with sustained winds of 35 knots. The system has moved under a weak upper level low - and manages to survive. The position under the low has actually reduced vertical shear. Movement continues to the northwest.

Invest 97L now active as well as another area well east of the Windward Islands - see the Storm Forum for additional details.
ED

Original Post
Tropical Depression nine has formed in the Central Atlantic, yet another fish spinner.

TD#9 is forecast to move northward, gradually strengthening. Not approaching any US land areas, and staying out to sea. It has some chance to strengthen into a tropical storm, but likely not enough to reach hurricane strength.

This continues the 180 season from last year, if it keeps up we thankfully may very well get through the season without a landfalling US hurricane.
Mike

Hurricane Isaac

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 30 2006 12:16 PM)

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