F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2006 Storm Forum

allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Quietest Season Since 1997
      Fri Dec 08 2006 09:16 AM

Not so quiet next year, predictors say El Nino will weaken for next years hurricane season.. This will be interesting

"A return to high hurricane activity in 2007 will likely follow the below-average 2006 hurricane season, according to climate forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
TSR says a 76% likelihood exists that U.S. land-falling hurricane activity in 2007 will fall among the top one-third of years historically.
The study was led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at College University London. Some of TSR's long-range hurricane predictions include:
• a 79% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15% probability of a near-normal season and only a 6% chance of a below-normal season;
• 16 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes; and
• five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., two of which will be hurricanes.
One factor influencing TSR's 2007 hurricane forecast includes the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.
In addition, the temperatures of the seawaters between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many of the hurricanes develop, will play a role.
TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders noted that "the 2006 hurricane season is atypical of years since 1950 and should not reflect badly on the general capability of forecasts.
"The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development," TSR noted.
Also, TSR pointed to the unexpected onset of El Niño conditions from mid-September. "There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before"

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Quietest Season Since 1997 allan Fri Dec 08 2006 09:16 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 4430

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center