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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone?
      Fri May 11 2007 05:46 PM

This may sound a bit "Point-Counterpoint"...and yes...I'm representing Florida well here as a rain wishcaster right now, here. But I'll put my money with the NOGAPS at this point.

A.) It was the first model to really pick up on something "Andrea" and try to do something with it.
B.) In general, it has done a better job of putting Andrea's remenants where they are right now.

From this point, even though it has weakened, the system looks more tropical than any model, forecaster, or any of us may have expected. The evolution of this system and it's surrounding environment has been somewhat complicated. I yield to the fact that the models may see something that is not actually there. NHC made reference in a one of their advisory discussion packages that Andrea would decouple between the surface and upper levels. It has done that and the models (i.e. GFS, UKMET, CMC, etc.) may be handling the Mid-Upper level components of the system moreso in each of their runs. The additional reason why I like the NOGAPS model at this point is that that it does pull Andrea's remenants (Or possible Andrea Reborn) to the NE for a short time as the relatively small trough and front comming down interacts with it. After that, it then recognizes that the mid lattitude environment is progressively evolving at a fast pace. The high passes behind the trough/front and moves to the north of "Old Andrea"...Blocking the Andrea remenants/redeveloped system in. From this point, she moves south into the Bahamas then westward across Florida (Say around West Palm with an exit in SWFL) ...progressively weakening from the Bahamas onward.

NOGAPS 850mb 12Z Run: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

NOGAPS Surface 12Z (Watch the ridge pass/block to the north): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Yeah...rain wishcasting...but the possibilty of this actually happening cannot be discredited or discounted either.

Edited by dem05 (Fri May 11 2007 05:52 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? No MikeCAdministrator Fri May 11 2007 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday correction madmumbler   Fri May 18 2007 11:28 AM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 17 2007 07:21 AM
. * * Guidance Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 17 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event Clark   Wed May 16 2007 11:23 PM
. * * Re:Site Rules and Forum Usage Storm Cooper   Wed May 16 2007 09:56 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event FLGuy   Wed May 16 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event madmumbler   Wed May 16 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event FLGuy   Wed May 16 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event FLGuy   Wed May 16 2007 06:57 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event madmumbler   Wed May 16 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event Clark   Wed May 16 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event cieldumort   Wed May 16 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out doug   Wed May 16 2007 02:55 PM
. * * Re:Future bahamas event rmbjoe1954   Wed May 16 2007 02:54 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out Ed in Va   Wed May 16 2007 02:07 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out cieldumort   Wed May 16 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out doug   Wed May 16 2007 01:29 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out Psyber   Wed May 16 2007 10:39 AM
. * * Re: andrea heading out Clark   Tue May 15 2007 10:16 PM
. * * Re: The week(s) ahead NewWatcher   Tue May 15 2007 08:38 AM
. * * The week(s) ahead danielwAdministrator   Mon May 14 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out cieldumort   Sun May 13 2007 11:33 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out HanKFranK   Sun May 13 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out Clark   Sun May 13 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out Rich B   Sun May 13 2007 12:52 PM
. * * Re: andrea heading out Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 13 2007 11:58 AM
. * * Re: andrea heading out cieldumort   Sun May 13 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: andrea heading out HanKFranK   Sun May 13 2007 10:05 AM
. * * Re: andrea heading out cieldumort   Sun May 13 2007 01:13 AM
. * * andrea heading out HanKFranK   Sun May 13 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Clark   Sat May 12 2007 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 12 2007 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? scottsvb   Sat May 12 2007 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Clark   Sat May 12 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Rich B   Sat May 12 2007 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? allan   Sat May 12 2007 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Rabbit   Sat May 12 2007 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? cieldumort   Sat May 12 2007 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Rabbit   Sat May 12 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? madmumbler   Sat May 12 2007 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Sat May 12 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? cieldumort   Sat May 12 2007 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Rich B   Sat May 12 2007 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? h2ocean   Fri May 11 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Storm Hunter   Fri May 11 2007 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? rmbjoe1954   Fri May 11 2007 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Hugh   Fri May 11 2007 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Storm Hunter   Fri May 11 2007 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Bloodstar   Fri May 11 2007 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? dem05   Fri May 11 2007 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? Rich B   Fri May 11 2007 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? WeatherNLU   Fri May 11 2007 05:12 PM

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