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System riding coast of South Carolina has a 20% chance for development, likely just rain though.
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch
      Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM

A quick comment or two on the model outputs this Sunday morning...

As Clark was discussing and I concur; the GFS has been a bit zealous in spinning up any perturbation it can sniff out, into a meaningful tropical system this spring.

However, the Day 6 onward is interesting in the 12z ECM. The MSLP charts indicate an inverted V in the surface pressure pattern, with strong hints at cyclonic closure passing across the Panhandle of Florida by the end of Day 6. This offers some support to the prior GFS outputs.

Interesting to note that the 12z run has lost the signal for these days. The UKMET and Canadian models look more similar to the ECM so this particular GFS run appears to be an outlier... Note, the Canadian actually goes ahead develops the Atlantic season's first TC...eventually just NE of FL. The overall consensus is a little more interesting than this day's 12z GFS solution.

The deep layer shear appears to be favorable during that time period, as fairly strong antecedent ridging evolves and slowly progresses through 35N/80W, D3 - D6. That places the area of the Gulf and western Caribbean typically in a deeper layer easterly flow regime, while dropping the upper atmosphere wind velocities across these areas to light. Moreover, the trend has been to slow down the entire pattern evolution at these key latitudes, so that also somewhat prolongs this period of favorable deep layer winds, giving more time for whatever to evolve to go ahead and do so.. Because convection has had a propensity in recent days to linger and refire in that region of the western Caribbean, the establishment of any favorable governing pattern does warrant increased monitoring.

Without considering a more important intensification taking place, this all could go quite far toward adjusting the season rainfall deficits in the positive direction, going from famine to feast. This can bring a tremendous dose of obsenely high precipitable water values. ...So perhaps this would all be a good thing.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun May 27 2007 03:21 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch danielwAdministrator Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Thu May 31 2007 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cchsweatherman   Thu May 31 2007 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch HURRICANELONNY   Thu May 31 2007 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Thu May 31 2007 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch GuppieGrouper   Thu May 31 2007 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cieldumort   Thu May 31 2007 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Bloodstar   Thu May 31 2007 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Thu May 31 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: incipient system? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: incipient system? allan   Wed May 30 2007 10:38 PM
. * * incipient system? HanKFranK   Wed May 30 2007 10:23 PM
. * * Re: A Couple of Notes allan   Wed May 30 2007 08:28 PM
. * * A Couple of Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2007 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Wed May 30 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Bloodstar   Wed May 30 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Wed May 30 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch doug   Wed May 30 2007 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 02:17 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 02:12 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? madmumbler   Wed May 30 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 01:29 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? madmumbler   Wed May 30 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cchsweatherman   Wed May 30 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? hurricaneguy   Wed May 30 2007 10:52 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? NewWatcher   Wed May 30 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cchsweatherman   Wed May 30 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 09:23 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? allan   Wed May 30 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? flarrfan   Wed May 30 2007 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hootowl   Wed May 30 2007 07:17 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cieldumort   Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM
. * * New Area to Watch ??? danielwAdministrator   Wed May 30 2007 04:24 AM
. * * Afternoon Model Updates-NWS Melbourne,FL danielwAdministrator   Tue May 29 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch MissBecky   Tue May 29 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Tue May 29 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cchsweatherman   Tue May 29 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Tue May 29 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch madmumbler   Tue May 29 2007 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Mon May 28 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch dem05   Mon May 28 2007 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Mon May 28 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Mon May 28 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Mon May 28 2007 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Mon May 28 2007 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Mon May 28 2007 05:18 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun May 27 2007 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch LoisCane   Sun May 27 2007 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: i see it Clark but... allan   Sun May 27 2007 08:57 AM
. * * i see it Clark but... LoisCane   Sun May 27 2007 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Sat May 26 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch HURRICANELONNY   Sat May 26 2007 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Tony Cristaldi   Sat May 26 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cieldumort   Sat May 26 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Quick Update danielwAdministrator   Sat May 26 2007 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Sat May 26 2007 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch dem05   Sat May 26 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Sat May 26 2007 10:16 AM

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