Well Tony the other day said probably what will happen as he is also a Met. I think right now the CMC is its usual self on being too agressive with tropical systems. The GFS goes downhill after 120hrs out...afterall (look above) on the 216hrs out..the gfs said there should be a strong 1001mb low entering the SE Gulf tonight..but its wayyy off. Nogaps tends not to pick up on everything at first..and the UKMet is usually alittle off base at times. Overall in the short term I like to use the GFS with the ECMWF for days 5-6.
Currently we have a weak low in the sw carribean. A trough is just south of jamaica with vort maxs spinning up as the trough iteracts still with the departing upper low to its N and the landmass backoff of Jamaica. I'm not sold on this being the main feature that the CMC is seeing. Its energy will combine with lower pressure from the pacific. In 36-48hrs a upper trough or cut off low will develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Energy from the trough in the NW carribean along with moisture from the EPAC will converge by Thurs-Fri near the Yucitan. With the upper trough digging in late in the week into the weekend..mositure or a low could form and head N or NE..
If anything I would be watching the low in the far E pac.
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