dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch
Mon May 28 2007 05:23 PM
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Scott, your comments are not unreasonable. Based on my best "eyeball" of the satellite of the SW Carrib. this afternoon, there is a weak surface vorticity around 14N,79W and a weak mid level around 15N, 77.5W. Overall shear is not bad in the area and the surface and mid level features are approaching each other this afternoon. It would be interesting to see what would happen if these two features can "stack" under this lower shear environment.
A lot of us disagree with JB at Accu on many things, but one thing I learned 4 or 5 years ago from his streaming videos...and has played out well, is that a cut-off low or trough that is west of 90W in the Gulf/Texas region can really bode well for a low pressure system to develop/strengthen in the NW Carribean and Eastern Gulf. In the coming days, it will be interesting to see the timing. In the meantime, this area of weather has an opportunity to compose itself over the next few days under a lower shear environment.
As for the moisture tap that may give this "area" some extra needed punch over the next few days, I prefer to look downstream at Northern South America. If a couple good impulses could come along the ITCZ from South America and pile upon this "area", then it has a better shot. Looking at past systems to develop, I give that opportunity a higher percentage than the opportunity of something breaking free fromthe ITCZ on the Pacific side and coming north. With that said, if you are hopeing for some good impulses coming in from South America, I've seen much better circumstances and I don't see anything overly eye popping down there now though.
As for the models, I will repeat something that has been said here before, they are difficult to deal with when it comes to early season development/cyclogenesis in the tropics. Also, they sometimes miss a beat when it comes to picking up on a developing system. In past seasons, I have seen the models develop a nasty hurricane that never ended up happening. Likewise, I've seen systems develop when the models gave no indication.It is that time of year, and if you are strongly leaning on the models providing a strong consensus/solution...thatmaybe a mistake. As a hobbiest, I highly rely on my synoptic skill at this time of year. With that said, I will only give this a one and three shot at developing at thistime. In three days, I'll look at the vapor images, look at the overall structure of what may/maynot exist, and look at what is coming down the pike as far as trough development over the CONUS and MX. Based on that, the odds may go up or down.
I hope everyone is having a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day, please don't forget to take a moment to reflect on our guys and gals who are serving and have served our county to protect the freedoms and liberties we enjoy on a day to day basis. I'm deeply greatful to all generations that have served our county. If this includes you, I honor you and I deeply thank you.
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