The local mets in Tampa are taking note of a possible system by the weekend. As so many of us have noted, the GFS is unduly aggressive with this system, and it seems like they are discounting it, or at least not putting as much emphasis on that particular model.
My question though is with temps in the Gulf being what they are, why would this system be considered cold core?
SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN GULF TO YUCATAN PEN AND GETS PUSHED ENEWARD WITH UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE FL PENINSULA...THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE COLD CORE NON TROPICAL TYPE SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE OVERRUNNING RAIN SHIELD APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI AHEAD OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH BULK OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY SAT. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE ITS USUAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH THESE GULF LOW/COLD FRONT SYSTEMS...SO ITS RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE MUCH NEEDED LOOK OVERDONE.
PRECIP COVERAGE LOCATION CONCERNS...CANADIAN MODEL FURTHEST N WITH MOST PRECIP OVER N FL WHILE ECMWF/NOGAPS FURTHEST S ONLY OVER S FL PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS AND DGEX BRING RAIN SHIELD FROM THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TO THE FL STRAITS.
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