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West Caribbean low has a 20% chance to develop in the Gulf late this week, even if it does not more rain. for Florida/Gulf.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 225 (Nate) , Major: 243 (Maria) Florida - Any: 252 (Irma) Major: 252 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3504
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Afternoon Model Updates-NWS Melbourne,FL
      Tue May 29 2007 09:47 PM

Excerpt from the Afternoon AFD from NWS Melbourne,FL. A bit long for a post but very informative.

VIRTUALLY EVERY AVBL MODEL(NAM/GFS/UKM/ECM/CMC/NGP) AND EVEN SOME
OF LESSER KNOWN ONES (JMA/KMA-GDAPS) SHOW A DISCRETE LOW PRES SYSTEM GRADUALLY SPINNING UP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THEN TURNING N/NEWD AND MOVING ACROSS FL OR VERY NEARLY SO...WITH THE SAT DAYTIME PD...GIVE OR TAKE A BIT...BEING THE BROAD CONSENSUS ON TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WX.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS LOOSE CONSENSUS...AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS NOW GETTING INTO THE DAY 3 TO 4 FCST TIME FRAME...CAVEATS STILL ABOUND.

NOTWITHSTANDING THE PREVIOUS MODEL "FALSE ALARMS"...THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFS BETWEEN THE MODELS - ENOUGH SO TO REMAIN WARY OF COMPLETELY BUYING INTO A HIGH POP/QPF EVENT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
CWA. FOR INSTANCE...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (ECM/NGP/GFS) STILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH/EAST SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP MISSES ECFL...ALBEIT NOT BY MUCH. OTHERS (UKM/CMC/JMA...WITH THE H84 NAM
HINTING AS SUCH) BRING THE LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX TO GIVE THE CTRL PENINSULA HIGH POPS/DECENT QPF.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&version=1&max=61

(QPF is roughly the quantitative precipitation forecast... the amount of rain that will fall over X amount of time)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch danielwAdministrator Tue May 29 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Thu May 31 2007 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cchsweatherman   Thu May 31 2007 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch HURRICANELONNY   Thu May 31 2007 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Thu May 31 2007 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch GuppieGrouper   Thu May 31 2007 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cieldumort   Thu May 31 2007 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Bloodstar   Thu May 31 2007 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Thu May 31 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: incipient system? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: incipient system? allan   Wed May 30 2007 10:38 PM
. * * incipient system? HanKFranK   Wed May 30 2007 10:23 PM
. * * Re: A Couple of Notes allan   Wed May 30 2007 08:28 PM
. * * A Couple of Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2007 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Wed May 30 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Bloodstar   Wed May 30 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Wed May 30 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch doug   Wed May 30 2007 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 02:17 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 02:12 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? madmumbler   Wed May 30 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 01:29 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? madmumbler   Wed May 30 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cchsweatherman   Wed May 30 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? hurricaneguy   Wed May 30 2007 10:52 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? NewWatcher   Wed May 30 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cchsweatherman   Wed May 30 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 09:23 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? allan   Wed May 30 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? flarrfan   Wed May 30 2007 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hootowl   Wed May 30 2007 07:17 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cieldumort   Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM
. * * New Area to Watch ??? danielwAdministrator   Wed May 30 2007 04:24 AM
. * * Afternoon Model Updates-NWS Melbourne,FL danielwAdministrator   Tue May 29 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch MissBecky   Tue May 29 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Tue May 29 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cchsweatherman   Tue May 29 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Tue May 29 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch madmumbler   Tue May 29 2007 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Mon May 28 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch dem05   Mon May 28 2007 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Mon May 28 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Mon May 28 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Mon May 28 2007 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Mon May 28 2007 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Mon May 28 2007 05:18 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun May 27 2007 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch LoisCane   Sun May 27 2007 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: i see it Clark but... allan   Sun May 27 2007 08:57 AM
. * * i see it Clark but... LoisCane   Sun May 27 2007 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Sat May 26 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch HURRICANELONNY   Sat May 26 2007 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Tony Cristaldi   Sat May 26 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cieldumort   Sat May 26 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Quick Update danielwAdministrator   Sat May 26 2007 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Sat May 26 2007 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch dem05   Sat May 26 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Sat May 26 2007 10:16 AM

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