Been watching. Wish to add to what Daniel just said, that while it is still dark one might have an easier time making out the llc which does appear to be present off the tip of the Yucatan using the Night IR , and zooming in on the feature.
It is worth noting that this is not the area favored by the models which were brewing something a bit further south of here and then moving it up either across or very near Florida. It is also worth keeping in mind that shear is still quite high in this region, although it has been trending down over the past day or so. (CIMSS Shear Analysis)
Also possibly complicating things for any would-be tropical cyclones, TD2E is rather close to this part of the Caribbean and GOM, as is another surface low which seems to have formed to 2E's southeast, inland near El Salvador. Not only does this leave three areas of low pressure competing for fuel sources and dominance in the region, but killer outflows can blow out of the associated thunderstorms, and snuff out any incipient disturbance.
Having qualified with all of that, shears have been coming down some while things have kept bubbling for several days now.
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