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Small 94L near Andros island in the Bahamas has a 60% chance for development tonight. Likely to stay just offshore FL.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Barry) , Major: 285 (Michael) Florida - Any: 285 (Michael) Major: 285 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1860
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: New Area to Watch ???
      Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM

Been watching. Wish to add to what Daniel just said, that while it is still dark one might have an easier time making out the llc which does appear to be present off the tip of the Yucatan using the Night IR , and zooming in on the feature.

It is worth noting that this is not the area favored by the models which were brewing something a bit further south of here and then moving it up either across or very near Florida. It is also worth keeping in mind that shear is still quite high in this region, although it has been trending down over the past day or so. (CIMSS Shear Analysis)

Also possibly complicating things for any would-be tropical cyclones, TD2E is rather close to this part of the Caribbean and GOM, as is another surface low which seems to have formed to 2E's southeast, inland near El Salvador. Not only does this leave three areas of low pressure competing for fuel sources and dominance in the region, but killer outflows can blow out of the associated thunderstorms, and snuff out any incipient disturbance.

Having qualified with all of that, shears have been coming down some while things have kept bubbling for several days now.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch danielwAdministrator Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Thu May 31 2007 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cchsweatherman   Thu May 31 2007 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch HURRICANELONNY   Thu May 31 2007 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Thu May 31 2007 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch GuppieGrouper   Thu May 31 2007 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cieldumort   Thu May 31 2007 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Bloodstar   Thu May 31 2007 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Thu May 31 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: incipient system? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: incipient system? allan   Wed May 30 2007 10:38 PM
. * * incipient system? HanKFranK   Wed May 30 2007 10:23 PM
. * * Re: A Couple of Notes allan   Wed May 30 2007 08:28 PM
. * * A Couple of Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2007 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Wed May 30 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Bloodstar   Wed May 30 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Wed May 30 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch doug   Wed May 30 2007 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 02:17 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 02:12 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? madmumbler   Wed May 30 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Ron Basso   Wed May 30 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? scottsvb   Wed May 30 2007 01:29 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? madmumbler   Wed May 30 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cchsweatherman   Wed May 30 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? hurricaneguy   Wed May 30 2007 10:52 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? NewWatcher   Wed May 30 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cchsweatherman   Wed May 30 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? Hurricane29   Wed May 30 2007 09:23 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? allan   Wed May 30 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? flarrfan   Wed May 30 2007 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hootowl   Wed May 30 2007 07:17 AM
. * * Re: New Area to Watch ??? cieldumort   Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM
. * * New Area to Watch ??? danielwAdministrator   Wed May 30 2007 04:24 AM
. * * Afternoon Model Updates-NWS Melbourne,FL danielwAdministrator   Tue May 29 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch MissBecky   Tue May 29 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Tue May 29 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cchsweatherman   Tue May 29 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Tue May 29 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch madmumbler   Tue May 29 2007 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Mon May 28 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch dem05   Mon May 28 2007 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch scottsvb   Mon May 28 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Mon May 28 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Hurricane29   Mon May 28 2007 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch allan   Mon May 28 2007 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Mon May 28 2007 05:18 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun May 27 2007 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch LoisCane   Sun May 27 2007 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: i see it Clark but... allan   Sun May 27 2007 08:57 AM
. * * i see it Clark but... LoisCane   Sun May 27 2007 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Sat May 26 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch HURRICANELONNY   Sat May 26 2007 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Tony Cristaldi   Sat May 26 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch cieldumort   Sat May 26 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Quick Update danielwAdministrator   Sat May 26 2007 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Clark   Sat May 26 2007 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch dem05   Sat May 26 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch Rich B   Sat May 26 2007 10:16 AM

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