Piece of discussion from HPC earlier this morning...
WITH EVOLVING SFC LOW PRESSURE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... PREFER LEANING TOWARD THE UKMET/12Z ECMWF/00Z NCEP-GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... OR LACKING THOSE OPTIONS... A WEAKER VERSION OF THE NAM. TYPICALLY PREMATURE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL LATITUDES FAVORS DISCOUNTING THE CANADIAN GLBL WHICH BRINGS A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW INTO NERN FL BY EARLY SAT. THE GFS IS THE NEXT FASTEST MODEL WITH A TRACK MUCH FARTHER WSW OF THE CANADIAN GLBL. THE NAM IS LIKELY TOO DEEP BASED ON ITS HISTORY OF LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEMS FROM LAST YEAR... THOUGH ITS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND INTERMEDIATE SFC LOW TRACK ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET/12Z ECMWF. NAM EVOLUTION THAT CONSOLIDATES ENERGY FROM CNTRL AMERICA AND VICINITY AND GFS EVOLUTION USING ENERGY INITIALLY OVER/NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE BOTH LOW CONFIDENCE FCSTS... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF A CURRENT WELL DEFINED FEATURE OVER THE ORIGINATING REGION IN SATL IMAGERY AND APPEARANCE OF FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL QPF PATTERN. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES FAVOR INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE AND SOME GRADUAL LOWERING OF SFC PRESSURES OVER THE SERN GULF/FL LATER IN THE PERIOD THOUGH. ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS MAKE THE UKMET/12Z ECMWF/00Z NCEP-GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE BEST OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.
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