"Thursday night-Sat...significant change in the pattern is expected as the ridge in the western Atlantic breaks down Thursday night-Fri. Meanwhile...broad cyclonic flow in the western Gulf will draw tropical moisture northward towards the state...ultimately resulting in increasing rain changes late this week and early this weekend. NAM-WRF suggests an area of low pressure north of the Yucatan will lift northward through the Gulf...which would produce beneficial rainfall across the forecast area. However...recent trends in the GFS indicate that a track further to the south and east is more likely. This would keep the deep tropical moisture to our south...with only scattered shower activity Friday and Sat as a wave of low pressure tracks across the southern peninsula. It would not be fair to totally rule out a wetter solution at this point as depicted by HPC and the European model (ecmwf)...which takes the low across The Big Bend and northeastward up the southeast coast. Given the anomalous nature of the pattern along with the fact that the event is still a few days out...plan at this point is to only nudge probability of precipitation up slightly from previous forecast."...........
(I'll repeat this request one more time: If you quote an official source, please STATE THE SOURCE in your post. In this case I believe its the NWS MLB Forecast Discussion bulletin.)
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