Quote: I see a good but dis-organized circulation next to the Yucatan on the bottom of all that moisture. I also see banding features starting up on the fringes of the storm. Surprised myself that it's not mentioned on NRL yet. Probabaly gonna tag it if it persists or gets better organized through the evening. I'm gonna see what my local news says about it in a few minutes and i'll let you know what good old Tom Sorrels says. I think Barry is going to be on the way in a few days. When I saw the CMC, my jaw literally dropped LOL.
Nothing on the surface at this point.
If LLC is going to form, it will need to pop up somewhere where it can take advantage of the upper level winds and use it as an outflow channel, rather than be torn apart by same said winds.
The current best place for a LLC to form is around 20N 85W. Should something spin up there, the system might have time to do something interesting.
As it is, the models are currently over reacting, and until things start to spin up, there's no need to hope/worry.
Florida and south Georgia needs the rain, so keep your fingers crossed something gets some moisture and rain up there and not more wind. which would be really bad.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.
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