The consensus is that if something does evolve in the vicinity of the NW Caribbean and eastern Gulf it would be subtropical and nature. Looking at the regional synoptics this afternoon and balancing those observations against the majority Global model outlooks I would have to agree, and assert that hybrid is unavoidable unless certain parameters change.
Currently there is clearly a trough defined by cyclone large scale motion from off Old Mexico/TX, curving toward the NE over the Gulf. Winds in the mid and upper levels in this band of westerlies are humming along at some 40kts, and even 50kts in some soundings.
The Global models show only increasing tendencies for troughing in the region over the next few days, as the entire domain of N/A goes through a period of amplification. Later on...after Day 5 or perhaps 6, that period of amplification may very well wane into more zonal character, as the larger scale hemispheric teleconnectors are also suggesting (Elevating NAO/AO contracting the westerlies more polarward). But, our system of interest, whatever becomes of it, will be by the boards.
With this kind of synoptic evolution in the deep layer winds, this will be a shear system. The heavier QPF will be NE of whatever center defines. The best hope for this to develop further, given the described regime, is for it to smartly begin moving along with the flow, such that storm relative shear reduces the impact of the westerlies. Because there will be a trough, any cyclonic development will entrain backside drier continental air and probably some deeper layer dynamics more akin to baroclinic storm development, so there is less likelihood of this being of purer tropical form if it ever gets going.
As a side note: Nevertheless...we are greatful for whatever water is received in southern Florida. Lake Okee. has set a record this day for the lowest ever recorded lake level. Normal is 13 feet. It is now under 9! This is a big, big problem for the 10 million citizens that depend on it for their fresh water source. Let along the damage to the surrounding Everglades habitat.
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