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Happy Birthday! CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound
      Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM Attachment (349 downloads)

Cosme lasted as a hurricane for 2 advisories, and has now been downgraded to a TS as of 11pm HST.

"MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF COSME IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP CONVECTION ... THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT COSME HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM."

(I've attached a rather nice QuikScat image while Cosme was still a hurricane. It is a *complete* pass over the cyclone, and shows very well how the strongest winds are associated with the deepest convection. Certainly worth a look.)

Although the hurricane force winds covered only a small area, the overall circulation of Cosme remains quite large, nearly 200 miles. So it may take a while for the cyclone to spin down.

Some easterly shear and progressively cooler SST's will take their toll over the next few days, however it's still on a projected track that may bring it as a minimal tropical storm very near or over the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. And as Cosme nears Hawaiian waters the SST's will gradually become somewhat warmer again.

"EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE COSME TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ... AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL INCREASE AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...IT'S AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD."

This might be interesting, due to the large size of the circulation and it's forecasted maintaining TS strength. The Islands may be in store for a rather wet, blustery weekend. We shall see if this pans out.

More tomorrow ...

- Aloha from Honolulu

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cosme to Become First HURRICANE of 2007 CoconutCandy Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now CoconutCandy   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now ClarkModerator   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Cosme Gives Big Island a Big Drink CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 23 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Cosme Waning, for Now CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now RevUp   Wed Jul 18 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Cosme Attempting Regeneration CoconutCandy   Fri Jul 20 2007 03:39 AM
. * * Cosme Weakens, Sputtering CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Cosme Weakens, Sputtering ClarkModerator   Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Cosme Becomes a HURRICANE, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 09:45 PM
. * * TS Cosme likely to become FIRST Hurricane of 2007 CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Soon to be Tropical Storm Cosme CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Depression 5E's Demise CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 10:23 AM

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