Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic has no named storms
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Michael) , Major: 36 (Michael) Florida - Any: 36 (Michael) Major: 36 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now
      Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM

Cosme continues to fire off pulsing deep convection in the SW quadrant. It's quite apparent that the easterly shear is trying to knock it down, and may yet suceed in doing just that over the next day or two.

NHC's 11pm HST discussion, highly paraphrased:

"COSME CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES OVER 25C WATERS ...

COSME IS MAINTAINING A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE SST'S IT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING. EVEN COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD ...HOWEVER... AND REACH A MINIMUM BEFORE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR COSME TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

But Cosme may still have 'a few tricks up her sleeve', so to speak:

"AFTER THAT...SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE INCREASING...AND THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATION BY 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SHIPS...NOW SHOWS ANY DECAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD."

Just as I suspected in my last post, when NHC was ready to give up on Cosme, weaken it to a depression, and then dissipate it entirely. Now they are expressing a change in their thinking, due to the tenacious convective flareups.

In fact, NHC's intensity forecasts have been, for the most part, too conservative pretty much all along. Showing, again, that we don't always have the greatest handle on all the factors relating to intensity fluxuations.

As an aside, it should be noted that Cosme is about to cross over 140W, when NHC in Miami will issue their last advisory, and the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center), here in Honolulu, now located on the University of Hawaii at Manoa campus, will take over forecast responsibilities, until the system dissipates or moves west of the dateline, 180W.

So, later today (Wednesday), please visit ...

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

... for the latest advisories on Cosme as it traverses the Central Pacific Basin and nears the Hawaiian Islands.

Latest 12 hour IR loop:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Any thoughts on all this? Please feel free to add to the thread with your ideas and observations!

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cosme to Become First HURRICANE of 2007 CoconutCandy Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now CoconutCandy   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now ClarkModerator   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Cosme Gives Big Island a Big Drink CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 23 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Cosme Waning, for Now CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now RevUp   Wed Jul 18 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Cosme Attempting Regeneration CoconutCandy   Fri Jul 20 2007 03:39 AM
. * * Cosme Weakens, Sputtering CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Cosme Weakens, Sputtering ClarkModerator   Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Cosme Becomes a HURRICANE, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 09:45 PM
. * * TS Cosme likely to become FIRST Hurricane of 2007 CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Soon to be Tropical Storm Cosme CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Depression 5E's Demise CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 10:23 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 9485

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center