Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#Lane threatening a direct hit on the Hawaiian islands as soon as early Thursday. Recon finds Lane even stronger tonight. Prepare.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 317 (Nate) , Major: 334 (Maria) Florida - Any: 344 (Irma) Major: 344 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Cosme Waning, for Now
      Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM

Cosme has crossed over 140W and the NHC in Miami has handed over responsibility to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/COSME.php

Meanwhile, Cosme has been downgraded to Depression status, as cooler SST's and persistent shear have apparently taken their toll on this system.

After several small, short lived convective bursts in the SE and SW quads the past 12 hours or so, it appears that Cosme is waning as I write this, about 1am HST.

However, I wouldn't shut the book quite yet, as the next few days might be interesting.

From the latest (11pm HST) advisory package from the CPHC:

"COSME IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE ...

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AN AREA OF COLD CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF COSME HAS EXPANDED AND COVERED THE CENTER. THAT MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER NICELY ... THERE WAS ALSO A NICE QUIKSCAT PASS (WHICH) SHOWED 30 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER."

But since this advisory, convection has again waned, but it may yet again flare and pulse during the overnight hours (Hawaii time) during the diurnal convective max cycle.

And if we do get a good burst near and over the LLC that persists, in spite of the shear, then central pressure may again drop and an upgrade might be in the works.

"WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION ... WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT...

BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS *LIKELY* WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN."

But it's really touch-and-go and much depends on the ability of the convection to sustain itself and the system as a whole.

"COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY."

And on the flip side of the coin:

"IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION (AS IT MOVES WEST) ...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY."

It's hard to predict exactly what will happen to Cosme in the next day or two, hence:

"THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW."

Looks like it could go either way. I wouldn't be too suprised to see it fizzle altogether, as it's happened so often in the past. But I've also seen a few depressions (and even remnants) flare up and regenerate as they approach warmer waters near the Islands.

(IMAGE OF COSMES' PROJECTED PATH TOWARDS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS)

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2007/sat/EP062007_070719_1100_sat.gif

And finally, a word from the good folks at the NWS forecast office in Honolulu, in their latest synoptic discussion (seperate from the official CPHC advisory discussion above) ...

"THE REEMERGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME NEEDS TO BE OF CONCERN TO THOSE WHO ARE MONITORING ITS PROGRESS. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST...COSME MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO REINTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

REGARDLESS OF ITS CURRENT OR FORECAST INTENSITY...ALL RESIDENTS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW FUTURE ADVISORIES ON COSME.

EVEN IF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES BY THE ISLANDS AS A WEAK LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF INCREASING WINDS TO SPEEDS NEAR OR ABOVE THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OVER LAND. THESE WINDS COULD BE ESPECIALLY STRONG OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY ON MAUI. (Orographically enhanced winds, something Floridians never have to think about!)

FLOOD WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM COSME MOVES UP FROM THE TROPICS."

Hmmm..... Just a quick check of the IR loop before submitting this post reveals a new flare-up of strong thunderstorms in a tight, band-like formation on the WEST side of the LLC. Have a look and follow along with the convective trends, as they will make or break the future of Cosme.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Sorry to be making such lengthy posts, but there does seem to be increasing interest in Cosme as she approaches the Islands. Hope they've been interesting and informative.

PS: Thanks for your replies. It's great to get others' perspectives on the situation, as well. Keep 'em coming!

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cosme to Become First HURRICANE of 2007 CoconutCandy Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now CoconutCandy   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now ClarkModerator   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Cosme Gives Big Island a Big Drink CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 23 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Cosme Waning, for Now CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now RevUp   Wed Jul 18 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Cosme Attempting Regeneration CoconutCandy   Fri Jul 20 2007 03:39 AM
. * * Cosme Weakens, Sputtering CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Cosme Weakens, Sputtering ClarkModerator   Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Cosme Becomes a HURRICANE, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 09:45 PM
. * * TS Cosme likely to become FIRST Hurricane of 2007 CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Soon to be Tropical Storm Cosme CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Depression 5E's Demise CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 10:23 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 9276

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center