MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf
Tue Aug 14 2007 09:55 AM
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8:35 AM EDT Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 is looking much better organized this morning, recon flights are scheduled to go out and take readings on this system. Those in Texas will want to watch this system.
6:55 AM EDT 15 Aug 2007 Update
Dean is beginning to enter an area with slightly more favorable shear conditions and gradually increasing water temperatures, so the intensity forecast shows it growing in strength, slowly, and steadily throughout the next day or two.
TD#5 is still rather ragged, but starting to become more organized. It still may become a Tropical Storm before landfall in south Texas.
More to come later,
11:45 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to TD#5 this evening. Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Freeport, Texas southward to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. The NHC's intensity forecast takes the system to Tropical Storm intensity by landfall late Thursday. If it becomes a tropical storm, the name would be Erin. Meanwhile, Dean is slowly becoming better organized in the Central Atlantic, now with winds of 50mph. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next day or so before more substantial strengthening as it nears the Lesser Antilles late in the week.
9:45 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, the first advisories should begin at 11PM EDT.
Tropical Storm Warnings/Watches are likely at 11PM EDT (10PM CDT) for the southern Texas and northern Mexican coastlines.
8:30 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
91L in the Gulf still is a bit too disorganized to be called a depression, but may be later tonight. It'll be a rainmaker at least, but it is running out of room to intensify, thankfully, all that much. Recon is flying through it again tonight, so we should know soon.
Dean's models have shifted back west, and the model consensus now is back to being a Caribbean storm, and the NHC agrees. Those in the Leewards need to be prepared for this system.
During the day Dean got torn up a bit by the shear, but the low level circulation center of it remained solid, and poised to restrengthen, even tonight it's firing off a bit. This scatterometer image below indicates how solid the center of circulation is.
3:24 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
91L doesn't seem to be organized enough yet for the hurricane hunters to issue a center fix, or what is referred to as a Vortex message. Winds are rough 20-25MPH around what could be considered the low level circulation. It will mostly be a judgement call at the NHC to issue advisories for a depression or not at 5PM. It may not be until later tonight.
3:16 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Recon is in 90L (The system in the Gulf) right now. We should know more soon.
Original Update
NRL and other agencies have decided to upgrade Tropical Depression 4 to Tropical Storm Dean.
Advisories on Dean will likely begin at 11AM EDT
More to come soon....
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Tropical Storm Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
{{StormLinks|TD#5|05|5|2007|2|Tropical Depression Five}}
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Cristi, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|hgx|Houston, TX Radar}}
Earlier Updates
8:50 AM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Caribbean disturbance (90L) is still getting its act together and may become a depression later today, recon is going out later today as well.
TD#4 is a bit better looking this morning, and models are trending back west a bit, once again increasing chances that the storm could affect the leeward islands.
Beyond that, still too early to tell, but it would be prudent to watch it.
It is very likely we will see TD#4 become a Tropical Storm late today, but right now Dvorak numbers (Satellite windspeed estimates) do not support a tropical storm.
More to come later.
2:45 AM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Neither system has developed much more since yesterday, although potential for 91L to develop today (the 14th) is still there. TD#4's convection hasn't been around the center of circulation lately, so it's further development is in check. The forecast track has shifted slightly north, reducing the potential impact in the Leeward islands, but the errors are still large.
Beyond the islands, it's still much too early to call. The best case would still be a curve away from land, and it is looking less likely this system will go into the Caribbean now. Still those in the area will want to watch because of the possibility for track errors at that range.
We will continue watching the progress on it.
91 didn't have enough last night to make it into a depression or storm, but it is looking better on satellite in the early morning hours. Chances are still high that it will develop sometime later today. Track thoughts haven't changed much on it either.
1:20 PM EDT Update
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 91L in the gulf, meaning a depression or Tropical Storm is likely to form there within 24 hours.
11AM EDT Update
Tropical Depression Four advisories are out, the NHC is currently projecting a track through the Leeward Islands as a category 1/2 hurricane later in the week. However, the margin of error is pretty high this far out, but those in those islands should monitor this system accordingly.
Tropical Storm Dean is expected to form from TD#4 later tonight or tomorrow. (This may change to Erin depending on the status of the Gulf System)
Over in Hawaii Hurricane Flossie is projected to move south of the Islands, but a Hurricane Watch is up for the Big Island of Hawaii. More information on Flossie at {{CPHC}} and in this thread.
To reiterate as well for the system in the gulf, those along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico should pay attention to the system developing in the Gulf (91L), it could form into a depression or more later today or early tomorrow.
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