Quote: The latest forecast track does look like it is slightly further south at the end of the period than the last one, but not in any significant way. The forecast will remain roughly the same until there is a change in the model consensus or a stronger signal that the storm is going to deviate from the track.
It is important to keep in mind that the steering regime will not be consistent over the next several days, so short-term changes in motion may not end up reflected in the long term.
I agree with you. I went back to the NHC's graphics archives and looked at their Ivan track. It had it bouncing around all over the place for several days, from west of FL to coming in at Punta Gorda and everywhere in between. I had forgotten that.
Everyone needs to keep in mind-- no one should get hung up on the track right now. It can vary widely from day to day. What it shows now might or might not be what it looks like next week.
Again, everyone in the Gulf should be watching this storm to see what it does. But worry or panic from anyone or wishcasting it will/won't go somewhere is kind of pointless at this time. There is no good that can come from fixating on a US landfall at this point beyond scaring the pudding out of newbies and unregistereds who are looking to this forum for more information.
Follow the NHC site, follow this site, but keep in mind that at this point, NO place along the Gulf coast is "safe" until the storm gets closer to land.
-------------------- Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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