4:00PM EDT 31 August 2007 Update Call has been made, Tropical Depression #6 forms East of the Caribbean. Advisories to begin at 5PM.
1:58PM EDT 31 August 2007 Update Recon found a surface circulation, TD may have already formed.
1:50PM EDT 31 August 2007 Update Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 94L, recon is very near/in the system now and is checking it out.
Original Update 94L, which was persisting, but not really developing all week, has come together and looks to be forming into a tropical depression. Aircraft recon will be out there later today to make the determination as well.
Things may change rapidly, and it is likely we will have a depression at 11AM to track, or if not later this afternoon. It is moving westward into the Caribbean.
The current early model trends keep it in the Caribbean moving westward. As it develops a better model picture should be available. It is important to note that the strong ridging that kept Dean moving westward past Jamaica does not seem to be there this time, but a upper level high will likely fill the gap to keep it more westward. As of now, it seems most likely to be a straightforward westward moving track, there isn't much out there to suggest otherwise at the moment. -- also the system is located further south than dean was at the same longitude.
Central America/Nicaragua is the most likely westward position at this time, but it could change.
The extreme southeastern Caribbean is not all that conductive for Tropical Systems, as land interaction with South America tends to bring in dry air from the south. So this system has some rough times ahead if it does form.
Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be up very soon for the Windward Islands.
More to come soon.
{{StormCarib}} {{StormLinks|TD#6|06|6|2007|1|Tropical Depression Six}} {{StormLinks|96L|96|8|2007|3|96L (Disturbance Southeast of New Jersey))}}
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