Quote: is 99l still attached to the front or is it a low on it's own yet?
It appears I am the only Met frequenting this thread...
The answer is no. The recent analysis is that the stationary boundary has washed out and we now have a low with a surface trough subtended S approximately 77W/30N.
This is encouraging for this system's genesis phase as it means the phase-transition is becomeing more purely barotropic and less baroclinic.
Moreover, another encouraging sign is that there is new convective elements exploding close to the center of circulation.
There is still shear impacting the area, however, so this is not in any rapid intensification by a long shot.
Models are still indicating development off the 00z runs. The GFS has a TC suggestion and the the oft' over-zealous CMC still tries to develop a significant TC. The NAM still suggests steady development while drifting the vortex ESE to the eastern Bahamas.
I have a funny feeling this system will make headlines! There is way more model support than not for this to spin up and the key for me is the evolving favorable UL wind field together with way more oceanic heat content than knows what to do with. At that time, about 66+ hours out, this is probably going to develop stronger than models in keeping with the usual 'gets deeper and more intense than expected' bias that pervades results of both machine and man expectations as of late.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 19479
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center