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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: 99L
      Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM

I might have to repost this every six hours.
Well this has been a easy forecasting hurricane season so far. 99L might be alittle more difficult but still I feel straight forward. Lets look at it:


Right now its a LLC inbeded from a decay frontal trough. The center has picked up enough Tropical Characteristics to be at least subtropical in nature. Inhibiting factor so far on this is the shear. Models feel this will slow down and turned NW after meandering for a day...some say it will head back to florida. Lets look at why this wont come back to florida. 1 foremost is the ridge will not lie over the midatlantic...its more over the NW atlantic...moreso the ridge will slide to bermuda and have a SE-NW orientation with it. Now in the Nowcasting side of things we have a trough digging in just north of the system...this should swing 99L in the near term more NE later tonight into Weds....and as this trough weakens the Ridge should develop over the NW atlantic thru the end of the week and migrate south towards bermuda taking anything NW. I think NC has the best chance of getting brushed by this then SE N.E. but another cold front and stronger will slide into N.E. and probably keep the main center off shore. This is though more then 5 days out and anything really more then 3 days is unclear. Its not certain that this will move into the Outerbanks directly. As the 0Z runs come out later tonight and more data is collected things will be more clearer tomorrow. If that Nowcast shortwave was just a few deg ahead of 99L ...99L would of been more S and SE and would of posed more of a threat to Florida and SC. Right now.. its just not .

scottsvb

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Subtropical Gabriel, no longer 99L; still some concern for East Coast typhoon_tip Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast cieldumort   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:58 PM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 07 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast orlandocanewatcher   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:22 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 99L nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:06 AM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 99L orlandocanewatcher   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lamar-Plant City   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 99L Hurricane29   Tue Sep 04 2007 08:01 AM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 99L doug   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 99L nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 09:05 PM
. * * Re: 99L inverst1   Tue Sep 04 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L Bloodstar   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:55 AM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 99L Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 99L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 99L LoisCane   Tue Sep 04 2007 08:15 PM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:35 AM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:26 PM

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