Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nate) , Major: 29 (Maria) Florida - Any: 39 (Irma) Major: 39 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2007 Storm Forum

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: 99L
      Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM

Quote:

NRL as well as dvorak # of 1.5 has it at 25 knts (29 mph) Speculation from HF from the main thread that it may be a td already as well as what I have read from other sites. Does anyone think given the overall structure and shear with all the dry air to the nw of the assumed center, that this could td before morning or perhaps a recon invest? I also understand that a recon is scheduled for tomorrow. Anyone have any updates?




I don't think we can be certain this is a depression already. There are baroclinic signatures present and so long as that is the case, there inserts a question as to the storm's physical make-up. The term "subtropical low" is probably more accurate, or subtropical depression if that is what is being referred?

I have posted topical related to phase-transition and am admittedly a little biased so far in my own interpretation of this happening faster. There was a narrow window earlier this evening and late afternoon, when the UL winds demonstrated a sudden organization into a jet core pointing NE. This actually stopped the "NW" shear, and aligned just NW of a large canopy of strong divergence, separate, and over the center of active convection. This led me to believe we had two distinct scenarios in play that were simply a matter of being very close in proximity to oneanother. Fact of the matter is, there may have been two identifications temporarilty. But, the synoptic-scale forcing of said jet, and, perhaps a depression forming just barely SE of that jet axis have since appeared to team up, belaying the purer phase-transition.

So, yes and no. I think this is a probably a weak subtropical low feeding off some very high oceanic heat content in the area, while getting an ascent assist by the evactuative capacity of the jet max. This appears to be utilizing the dynamic processes of both worlds -- hense hybrid, subtropical, or whatever one wants to call it.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 05 2007 01:51 AM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Subtropical Gabriel, no longer 99L; still some concern for East Coast typhoon_tip Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast cieldumort   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:58 PM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 07 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast orlandocanewatcher   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:22 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 99L nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:06 AM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 99L orlandocanewatcher   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lamar-Plant City   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 99L Hurricane29   Tue Sep 04 2007 08:01 AM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 99L doug   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 99L nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 09:05 PM
. * * Re: 99L inverst1   Tue Sep 04 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L Bloodstar   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:55 AM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 99L Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 99L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 99L LoisCane   Tue Sep 04 2007 08:15 PM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:35 AM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:26 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 29439

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center