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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

MikeC
Admin

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL

Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
Wed Sep 26 2007 02:50 PM

Couple of things before I get emails about Allan's post. Karen is holding just below hurricane strength. The chances of Karen not affecting land are about 90%. And I'm seriously doubting Karen will hold together all that long either, it may remain strong for a few days, but it will start to hit some serious shear down the road which will likely tear it apart. Track wise, Karen is to the right (north) of the projected NHC track (and the GFDL) now, so if anything it would move further east/north.

This is the forecast lounge, and people can post here without too much worry, but I have to remind people here that the chances of Karen affecting land are so minimal that it's not worth alarming anyone. It's important to take the approach of why something won't affect land or strengthen then why, it's when those reasons start to drop out you start to be concerned. And right now the chances of something wild like Karen moving west are so vastly outnumbered by the reasons it would not that there is no point in creating "storm fatigue" with folks with yet another storm that doesn't do much.

The front page has a few links at the bottom that have places that like to hype up everything if you are looking for that, but I believe doing so here is counter productive.

Note that I don't mean not watch Karen or discuss things, but I think casually mentioning to someone who isn't into tracking storms "Watch out for Karen! LoL!" is more than a little misleading.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Karen Lounge	Hurricane29	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall	allan	Sat Sep 29 2007 07:31 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall	TampaRand	Sat Sep 29 2007 06:46 PM
Is Karen gone for good?	Rasvar	Mon Oct 01 2007 07:43 PM
Re: Is Karen gone for good?	weathernet	Mon Oct 01 2007 09:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall	allan	Sat Sep 29 2007 05:14 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	allan	Thu Sep 27 2007 01:02 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	allan	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:30 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	jbmusic	Wed Sep 26 2007 06:57 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	TampaRand	Thu Sep 27 2007 01:05 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Sep 27 2007 03:49 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	Cat 5orBust	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	WeatherNut	Thu Sep 27 2007 09:05 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Fri Sep 28 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to be hurricane?	saluki	Fri Sep 28 2007 01:01 AM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	spinup	Sun Sep 23 2007 08:28 PM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	weathernet	Sun Sep 23 2007 09:36 PM
Clarification	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 23 2007 10:53 PM
Re: Clarification	MikeC	Mon Sep 24 2007 08:38 AM
Re: Clarification	Robbissimo	Mon Sep 24 2007 08:57 AM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	weathernet	Sun Sep 23 2007 01:39 PM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	BillD	Sun Sep 23 2007 04:48 PM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	cieldumort	Sun Sep 23 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	weathernet	Sun Sep 23 2007 05:42 PM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	srquirrely	Mon Sep 24 2007 09:09 AM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	weathernet	Mon Sep 24 2007 09:43 AM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	doug	Mon Sep 24 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	spinup	Mon Sep 24 2007 11:17 AM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	punkyg	Mon Sep 24 2007 01:01 PM
looks like a TD to me at the least	LoisCane	Mon Sep 24 2007 02:12 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	cieldumort	Mon Sep 24 2007 07:37 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	cieldumort	Mon Sep 24 2007 08:47 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	MikeC	Mon Sep 24 2007 08:52 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	weathernet	Mon Sep 24 2007 10:10 PM
Forecast Lounge	danielw	Mon Sep 24 2007 11:42 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	punkyg	Mon Sep 24 2007 09:00 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	MikeC	Mon Sep 24 2007 02:28 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	M.A.	Mon Sep 24 2007 02:42 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	weathernet	Mon Sep 24 2007 05:30 PM
Re: looks like a TD to me at the least	MikeC	Mon Sep 24 2007 07:13 PM
Re: Invest 96L off the african coast....	allan	Mon Sep 24 2007 12:18 PM
Re: Invest 96L of the african coast....	MikeC	Sun Sep 23 2007 10:09 AM
Re: Invest 96L of the african coast....	WeatherNut	Sun Sep 23 2007 11:26 AM
Re: Invest 96L of the african coast....	punkyg	Sun Sep 23 2007 11:53 AM
Re: Invest 96l of the african coast....	punkyg	Sun Sep 23 2007 07:37 AM
Re: Invest 96l of the african coast....	allan	Sun Sep 23 2007 09:47 AM

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