darn... gone all day... away from Panama City... and come back and Lorenzo makes a run up to Hurricane... just off shore of Old Mx.... Nice! Just looked over the recon data from today... wow.. so compact of system!!! Starting to look at the NOAA data on Karen... just glanced at a few models... looks like if karen survives another 2-3 days, things might get interesting.... as the ridge builds back to the north of it. Looks like its going to be, how much of shear can the system take for about 48-72 hrs?
11pm Adv. on karen..
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN THE STORM OUT TO SEA AND ALL MODELS BUILD RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...FORCING A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THIS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF THE STORM WEAKENS MORE THAN EXPECTED...THIS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE WEST..ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM.
Also read Lorenzo Discus.... I am really interested to what recon finds in a bit when they get there.. actually how far down the drop of pressure went. Would like to know too if it will make cat 2 or more at landfall? this might set another 2007 record if it keeps agoing!
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