allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall
Fri Sep 28 2007 02:26 PM
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On the last few frames, Karen is moving due WEST, it has stopped it's northward movement and should continue on a west or west - northwestward course. Karen is also surprisingly blowing up convection.. on the CIMMS shear map shear is 10-15 knots where the actual center is, but where the moisture is, it's 30-50 knots. Yesterday, Karen had that "Barry" look when it reached it's peak in June. This should only be temporary but, it makes me believe even more that she will make it through, also the only reason why the 3 models (GFS, GFDL, and UKMET) even dissipate the storm is because they are developing a trough off the East Coast that would absorb Karen up, not buying yet.
For a Tropical Storm, she is actually looking really good.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html
Tropical Depression 14 literally shocked me this morning.. I found out it was tagged an invest early this morning and then a TD at 11 am. this should stay out to sea, but wouldn't surprise me if it were to head to Bermuda in the long term.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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