Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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For October Its Busy Out There
Wed Oct 03 2007 11:14 PM
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Thursday 10/11 Update -- 4:30pm ET
The National Hurricane Center has designated the unsettled area southeast of Bermuda as the season's 15th tropical depression. It is expected to move generally toward the north and east over the next several days before being absorbed by a frontal boundary. On the whole, the basin remains full of convection but low in terms of organized features.
Update - Friday, 10/05, 11:30PM EDST
Invest 90L moved inland over east Texas earlier today and Invest 92L has been dropped. Invest 91L located at 12.7N 48.9W at 06/00Z. 91L has been stationary for the past 12 hours and remains very disorganized under westerly shear. 14L, the remnants of Melissa, barely recognizable at 24.6N 53.5W at 06/00Z.
Newly identified Invest 93L located at 20.5N 67.5W at 06/00Z has some chance for slow additional development. Movement probably to the west northwest or northwest.
The former 92L is now an elongated trough of low pressure that should rapidly transition to the eastern Gulf tonight, but any development chance is pretty slim.
ED
Original Post
No tropical cyclones in the basin - but lots of potential areas of interest. The remains of Melissa (14L) were located at 21.6N 48.6W at 04/00Z with winds of 30knots. Convection keeps firing, primarily to the north of the circulation center, and some minimal intensification is possible. The system is currently moving to the west northwest at 14 knots.
Invest 90L located in the northern Gulf of Mexico near 26.8N 87.8W at 04/00Z with winds of 25 knots. System has not developed today and at times convection has been on the wane. Current movement is to the northwest at 8 knots. Modest shear and proximity to the Louisiana coast should limit further development - but it still needs to be monitored.
Invest 91L well to the east of the Windward Islands near 9.6N 42.0W at 04/00Z with winds near 25 knots and movement to the west at 12 knots. System is still not well organized, however, some slow development is possible over the next couple of days.
Finally, Invest 92L is east of the central Bahamas. The center has been relocating to the southeast over the past 4 or 5 hours and a weak low level circulation may be starting to develop near 24.6N 71.5W at 04/02Z. Sustained winds probably near 25 knots as convection fires primarily to the east and south of the center. Again, slow development is possible, but with the constant shift in center location, a future track is not easily determined. This one is truly a wait-and-see system. So we will.
ED
Southeast Composite Radar
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|99L|99|16|2007|2|99L (Gulf Wave)}}
Edited by MikeC (Tue Oct 16 2007 11:31 AM)
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