Marti-
Yeah, your sure right about early prep. Really was surprised to see the CDO appearance this a.m., and quite frankly by quick look at this a.m.'s early vis. sat., I would say that the upper air is improving already. The ULL to Noel's west ( ok, wll jumping the gun here, but will assume Noel by 5:00pm ), appears to be collapsing. While I am leaning towards a solution which will hook the system to the right ahead of the next short wave, I too am a little wary for a couple reasons. My biggest concern is that the storm may become a little eratic and bounce around with somewhat confused and weak steering. Onlike most seasons, this October has yet to bring a clean front through, and the mid level steering has yet to enforce its "fall-like" grip over the Southeastern U.S. One thing for sure, the pressure gradient here over South Florida is gonna tighten up pretty good.
Keep a "weather-eye" on both the GFDL and the GFS. Seems that the GFS model has a pretty good take on picking up whether or not a system is baroclinic or more tropical; that and I have always found GFS to be most reliable on motion. As soon as we get some good data in from recon, I would say that tonight's 0Z run may prove to be rather interesting. Will be curious to see if GFS starts to show a more developed system than is current, and if it shows a 72-120 hour forecast more in line with GFDL. If so, am putting my money on a concensus track between those two. On intensity, am just gonna have to hold off on that thought for a few hours, but am certainly in the mindset of this system easily reaching min. hurricane status if a more westward track occurs for the next couple days.
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