Some of the most divergent model runs are popping up at 29/00Z. To consider any of these with any more faith than with a grain of salt we still need to be able to have a center fix that we can truly believe, and that is looking mighty challenging tonight.
Here are a few notables from the 00Z runs which highlight the discrepancies still very much underway:
GFDL: Crosses Noel over DR/Haiti and then eases left (westward). Straightens out. Reorganizes Noel a bit. Noel becomes a Cat 1-2 crossing the Bahamas and begins easing a bit right, approaching Bermuda as a major hurricane. Continues on as a Cat 2/3 before undergoing ET. Threatens Nova Scotia as a very potent hybridizing cyclone, asymmetrically warm-cored.
UKMET: Takes TS Noel through western DR/Haiti and drives him wnw along and/or just offshore of Cuba through the rest of the week!
GFS: Loses the closed LLC of Noel over DR/Haiti. Devolves the remains into a trof. Reforms a new LLC northwest of there, and takes it northwest towards offshore southeast Florida & the Bahamas. Loses this LLC, and devolves it into another trof. Forms yet another LLC north-northeast of that location, up near Bermuda. Scrapes Bermuda from the east with a new or newly reborn TS Noel (??) and then just about stalls it out to drift in that location.
NAM: Loses the closed LLC of Noel over DR/Haiti. Redevelops it well to the southwest of there, and drives the newly reborn TS Noel (??) northwest through the Yucatan Channel and/or over extreme western Cuba for Halloween.
Trick or Treat!
It's enough to make you want to eat some candy in the middle of the night.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 21328
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center