Some of the most divergent model runs are popping up at 29/00Z. To consider any of these with any more faith than with a grain of salt we still need to be able to have a center fix that we can truly believe, and that is looking mighty challenging tonight.
Here are a few notables from the 00Z runs which highlight the discrepancies still very much underway:
GFDL: Crosses Noel over DR/Haiti and then eases left (westward). Straightens out. Reorganizes Noel a bit. Noel becomes a Cat 1-2 crossing the Bahamas and begins easing a bit right, approaching Bermuda as a major hurricane. Continues on as a Cat 2/3 before undergoing ET. Threatens Nova Scotia as a very potent hybridizing cyclone, asymmetrically warm-cored.
UKMET: Takes TS Noel through western DR/Haiti and drives him wnw along and/or just offshore of Cuba through the rest of the week!
GFS: Loses the closed LLC of Noel over DR/Haiti. Devolves the remains into a trof. Reforms a new LLC northwest of there, and takes it northwest towards offshore southeast Florida & the Bahamas. Loses this LLC, and devolves it into another trof. Forms yet another LLC north-northeast of that location, up near Bermuda. Scrapes Bermuda from the east with a new or newly reborn TS Noel (??) and then just about stalls it out to drift in that location.
NAM: Loses the closed LLC of Noel over DR/Haiti. Redevelops it well to the southwest of there, and drives the newly reborn TS Noel (??) northwest through the Yucatan Channel and/or over extreme western Cuba for Halloween.
Trick or Treat!
It's enough to make you want to eat some candy in the middle of the night.
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