Noel Over Cuba, Weaker - FLHurricane.com

Midnight EDT Update 31 October 2007
Noel has started moving more north and is approaching a "wall" of sorts to moving much further west. No Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Florida, and this will likely remain the case.

The current forecast track takes Noel abruptly to the north and east over tomorrow, and things are shaping up for this to be the most likely scenario,

For discussion of other, less likely, scenarios check out this thread here.
What's it like in your area? Let us know here

11AM EDT Update 30 October 2007
Surface reports in Cuba have confirmed that Noel has made its way westward into Cuba. This should keep the system weak, the forecast still calls for a sharp northeastern turn, but because of more land interaction, will likely stay weak or fall apart before it gets to the Bahamas.

No Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida have been issued, as the system is still expected to pass to the east of Florida. The pressure gradient will keep the wind brisk for the next few days in Florida, however.

Since the system is still moving west at this hour, it is still possible for Tropical Storm Watches in Southeast Florida. Noel still needs to be watched until the projected turn has been made.

An interesting possibility is that the storm keeps moving west and reenters the Caribbean sea, missing the current kick out to sea. This would keep Noel in the Caribbean for a few days before anything else came along to move it out. This is less likely, but if it continues more westward it becomes more likely.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Noel has moved away from Haiti, and has now entered the Atlantic south of the Bahamas. The forecast track takes it generally Northwest and then Recurving back to the northeast once between the Bahamas and South Florida.

Noel has caused at least 20 reported deaths in Haiti due to mudslides an rain. Parts of Hispaniola received as much as 30 inches of rain.

This may force Tropical Storm Watch for a good chunk of South Florida tomorrow, with the pressure gradient as large as it is, winds will be felt well away from the system, including Central Florida. Which may cause erosion and rough conditions at the beach. But most models suggest the system staying offshore. Many have trended west during the day today.

Slow to modest Strengthening is possible over the next few days, but the official forecast still holds it at no stronger than a Tropical Storm. The way it is set up now, the stronger the system gets, the more likely it will remain away from South Florida.

Due to the proximity to the Bahamas and South Florida, everyone in the cone should be prepared for a Tropical Storm, and perhaps make sure you still have hurricane supplies anyway in case of unexpected further west movement or strengthening.

The most likely scenario right now is that it remains offshore, maybe a few rain bands for south Florida, and gradient driven winds for a good chunk of Florida, some of which may be rough. Be very mindful of this for Halloween night.

Radar Loops
Flhurricane Long Term Noel Radar Approach Recording
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Large Miami Radar Loop
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Cuban Radar
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{{StormLinks|Noel|16|16|2007|1|Tropical Storm Noel}}

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