Speaking for myself, I beleive that although the overall envelope of Noel is quite large, that the inner core is surprisingly quite small. This along with decreased shear in the short term, may allow for slightly stronger strengthening than what NHC is presently forecasting. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if we were to see a minimal hurricane just off the Florida coastline sometime late Hollow's Eve. I am not sure the date, and may have been today, or possibly on Holloween, but in 1965 areas in S. Florida received over 13" of rain. I do not recall the circumstances and perhaps baroclinic in nature, but point being that a somewhat more westward motion in the short term, along with a slow and eratic motion, S. Florida could well see copious rainfall amounts. Latest GFS does in fact progress the 500 short wave a tad quicker than in previous runs, however the overall long wave pattern has not been conducive to significant troughing in the Southeastern U.S. thus far this fall season. I do not see real evidence of change yet either. Now, as I write this, I am positive that a sudden shift of Noel's low level center is about to be made into the more significant bursting convection to its centers' north, thus solidifying not only a truer 315 degree motion, but what would be an increase of forward motion. Such would fit nicely within the anticipated forecast track. This all said, I can still see a yet to deepen storm, being steered more by the low to mid levels during the next 24 hours. In fact, contrary to the greater science at hand, I believe that a more WNW motion may prevail.
I think that although unlikely, such a more westward motion along with a little greater deepening, that it would seem far more prudent for NHC to hoist the Tropical Storm Warnings ( and even a Hurricane Watch pending an overnight several millibar drop ) for S. Florida, rather than the politically preferable high Wind Warning. No doubt that warnings would invoke schools to close, parties and trick or treating activities to be affected, along with a host of private and public readiness to initiate - costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to the local economy. The alternative could be a "spot on" forecast with only fast showers and a little higher winds for S. Florida and the Keys ( which should NOT be taken for granted and such tight forecasting with such accuracy most commendable )......or the other alternative being a deepening small core minimal hurricane moving very slowly droping 20" or more over parts of S. Florida - all this while little or no preperation made for boaters, business, commuters, and Holloween revellers.
TRICK or TREAT? I'll sit tight for now trusting NHC, but then again I don't need much time to chase a minimal hurricane in the Upper Keys.
Edited by weathernet (Tue Oct 30 2007 01:45 AM)