Noel Over Cuba, Weaker - FLHurricane.com

Okay. It is 11PM, the new advisory is out and I have some interesting footnotes...This is one of the few times that I will reference a text product we all can read outside of the thread...But it is time to build a case of clarity in light of some possible confusion???

Please note...I love and trust all the guys at the NHC...They are the best minds in Hurricane forecasting that we have.

11PM Disco Footnote tostart us off:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.

I call the center fix a compromise...there are two reasons for this:
1. Have a good look at the Cuban Radar, the center is not clearly visible where it is depicted...However, along the north coast, there is what some may argue to be a 1/5 to 1/4 eyewall wrapping around a center of circulation.

LINK: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif

2. Interestingly, the center is not there...and probably isn't at the forecast point either. It may be exiting/have exited Cuba over the Carribean. Please reference this link and visit Vis/IR2 Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

THE CASE: Sometimes...we hammer down to pinpoint an exact center...As we also knowin Hurricane preparedness, don't focus on the exact pinpoint center of circulation. In this case, some smaller vorticities are possibly circulating around and are visible on radar (more than likely as I saw at least one earlier this afternoon that came intoCuba from the Atlantic). Otherwise, the system has also likely started to loose some of it's main core due to land interaction...on that note, we need to focus on the broader view and look at the overall circulation pattern. According to RAMSDIS, I would say that the overall circulation of Noel contines to the west, dispite radar obs...and if you look at the loop, I think you will agree that the general core area continues westward and is deviod of much activity....Any low, may meander...wobble or move erratically withing the main circulation envelope...even though that envelope is moving in it's own direction.

The 11PM advisory looks to me as more of a compromise between the radar Presentation and the satellite presentation. If you draw a SW to NE line, the 11 PM center will be right about in the middle. Noel is not done either way, but overall, I think the center continues westward based on the larger picture.

Finally, He will turn north...I love those Steering Charts Allan. Always a personal favorite. If you click the +3 and -3 buttons, it is apparent the high is slowly "eastbound and down...Loaded up and truckin'" In it's own way, so Noel will turn.. When? Is going to remain my question as I agree to disagree in a 315 degree forward motion...You can't will something to do something it is not doing....Fornow, a low level circulation is westbound, while other activity exists...

Bottom Line, difuse system with now "crystal" clear answers over the next 12-24 hours...

Edited by dem05 (Tue Oct 30 2007 11:59 PM)

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