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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely
      Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM

Fawning over models and defending their value in forecasting Noel's track aside for the moment, the facts on the ground are entirely challenging the NHC forecasters, giving them quite the run for the money, one can be sure. After defying the forecast of a continued NNW track so far today, and clearly running WSW, Noel has taken up nearly stationary right along the coast again (Close-up of GOES visible from NRL) . If Noel were to start heading WSW again he will be back over Cuba, once again. In fact, if his mean movement takes up any direction other than a solid NW through E course, he will be back over Cuba. A trip back over Cuba changes everything with regard to the 11AM forecast put out by NHC, not just a little bit of everything.

That paragraph being my segue into getting back to the models. I actually think the very large cyclonic envelope that has grown up around Noel to be illuminating, and something that perhaps lends a good deal more support to the outlier NAM. For several runs now, NAM has held back the bulk of Noel's abundant vorticity this side of 23N, in one fashion or another. NAM has generally taken the large and expansive cyclonic flow that is apparent with Noel, and used that, along with a not nearly as impressive shortwave approach and Noel's anticyclone aloft, to soften the blow and reduce the tugs of the approaching trough. And you know, if you look at the loops today, you really can make a case for this.

Whether or not Tropical Storm Watches and/or Warnings go up for the Keys and/or coastal south Florida, while a matter or politics and economics, is also really a matter of semantics when it comes down to a number of the effects this area continues to feel, and will likely feel, for some more time to come. A High Wind Watch, if reissued, is nothing to scoff at. Sustained winds of up to "only" 40MPH and/or gusts aoa 58, if verified, will definitely rearrange ones view.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida cieldumort   Fri Nov 02 2007 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida cieldumort   Fri Nov 02 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida scottsvb   Thu Nov 01 2007 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida sailor   Thu Nov 01 2007 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida sailor   Thu Nov 01 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida doug   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida allan   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida scottsvb   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida ftlaudbob   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida Storm Hobbyist   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida Lee-Delray   Thu Nov 01 2007 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Noel Moving Northward - Tropical Storm Warnings up for South Florida doug   Thu Nov 01 2007 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida - TS/Warning Hurricane Watch for Bahamas craigm   Thu Nov 01 2007 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida - TS/Warning Hurricane Watch for Bahamas weathernet   Thu Nov 01 2007 05:46 AM
. * * Re: Storm Watches and Warnings mikethewreck   Thu Nov 01 2007 05:07 AM
. * * Storm Watches and Warnings ltpat228   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Recon LoisCane   Thu Nov 01 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Recon Old Sailor   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Recon Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Rainfall danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:55 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:49 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:28 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:56 PM
. * * Re: if they get together, both centers... danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:54 PM
. * * if they get together, both centers... LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Noel Inches Westward - TS Watch For South Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely jessiej   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Tak   Wed Oct 31 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Storm Hobbyist   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic, South Florida Watching Movement Closely cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Lamar-Plant City   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Hurricane29   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Stormin_thru   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations scottsvb   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:08 PM
. * * great graphicsq LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Colleen A.   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Lamar-Plant City   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations craigm   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations Steve H1   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Notes from satellite observations LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Notes from satellite observations danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic doug   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic LoisCane   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic Lee-Delray   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic charlottefl   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic cieldumort   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Noel Emerges into the Atlantic weathernet   Wed Oct 31 2007 09:19 AM

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