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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: TD 01E
      Wed May 28 2008 10:16 PM

nhc finally called it. the system is unusually far east in the eastpac and at a low latitude... there are actually some 'atlantic' systems in the track record that have their origins in the same general location, i.e. 1949 and 1965, others.
at the rate this thing is improving, and also due to the fact that it is parallelling the coast.. reckon this will be tropical storm alma tomorrow morning. i know, alma. the eastpac wasn't the most advisable place to use that name, as it could conceivably be a storm affecting central america like the one in 1966 did.
my prog on this thing is that it stays fairly weak.. but it won't have to get very strong to cause a lot of problems. i'd expect that the collection of model solutions that slowly veer it around in a counterclockwise way are right, and that it goes in later tomorrow near the confluence of nicaragua/honduras and el salvador as a weak tropical storm, short of any off-the-wall intensification. proximity to land should keep that in check (though it's no guarantee). even if it does... though the deep layer steering from the strengthening ridge to the north should push it westward... it might just keep wobbling around in the locally weak steering flow and move onshore anyway. all of the disturbed weather to the east, and the asymmetry of the wind field ought to aid that.
future track is very iffy. most of the models take it around in a gyre inland over central america. mountainous terrain, so the chances that it will dissipate over the weekend are significant. on the other hand, it might try to redevelop offshore north of honduras. there is a chance it will show up in the atlantic basin and all, but that should probably be brief.
gfs is still trying to develop something in the northwestern caribbean even after it gets rid of our current system. after it progged this guy to show up from two weeks out (albeit on the wrong side of central america), i would put a tad of stock in it. gfs sees the pattern, wants to take something up towards florida during the first week of june. highly fluid situation, too early to tell how it will unfold on our side of the continent.
HF 0316z29may

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season MikeCAdministrator Wed May 28 2008 10:16 PM
. * * Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up LoisCane   Thu May 29 2008 01:25 PM
. * * Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up MichaelA   Thu May 29 2008 12:34 PM
. * * Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up doug   Thu May 29 2008 12:29 PM
. * * Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up cieldumort   Thu May 29 2008 12:11 PM
. * * clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up LoisCane   Thu May 29 2008 11:52 AM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season hofloka   Thu May 29 2008 11:16 AM
. * * Tropical Depression 1E Now Tropical Storm Alma cchsweatherman   Thu May 29 2008 08:53 AM
. * * Re: TD 01E punkyg   Thu May 29 2008 07:57 AM
. * * Re: TD 01E cieldumort   Thu May 29 2008 05:36 AM
. * * Re: TD 01E scottsvb   Thu May 29 2008 12:56 AM
. * * Re: TD 01E dem05   Thu May 29 2008 12:03 AM
. * * Re: TD 01E danielwAdministrator   Thu May 29 2008 12:01 AM
. * * Re: TD 01E Clark   Wed May 28 2008 11:30 PM
. * * Re: TD 01E HanKFranK   Wed May 28 2008 10:16 PM
. * * Re: TD 01E dem05   Wed May 28 2008 10:06 PM
. * * Re: TD 01E dem05   Wed May 28 2008 09:51 PM
. * * Re: TD 01E Hugh   Wed May 28 2008 09:50 PM
. * * TD 01E cieldumort   Wed May 28 2008 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E cieldumort   Wed May 28 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E dem05   Wed May 28 2008 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E HurricaneKid   Wed May 28 2008 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E cieldumort   Wed May 28 2008 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E dem05   Wed May 28 2008 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E scottsvb   Wed May 28 2008 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E Storm Hunter   Wed May 28 2008 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E Maitland, FL   Wed May 28 2008 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Invest 90E rmbjoe1954   Wed May 28 2008 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Invest 90E cieldumort   Wed May 28 2008 03:19 AM
. * * Re: Invest 90E danielwAdministrator   Wed May 28 2008 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 90E dem05   Tue May 27 2008 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E Storm Hunter   Tue May 27 2008 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 90E rmbjoe1954   Tue May 27 2008 04:26 PM
. * * Invest 90E cchsweatherman   Tue May 27 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: this week C.A.   Tue May 27 2008 11:34 AM
. * * Re: this week scottsvb   Mon May 26 2008 02:45 PM
. * * this week Storm Hunter   Mon May 26 2008 01:40 PM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season weatherguy08   Mon May 26 2008 01:01 PM
. * * Re: this weeks tropics scottsvb   Mon May 26 2008 01:54 AM
. * * this weeks tropics Storm Hunter   Mon May 26 2008 01:09 AM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Storm Hunter   Sun May 25 2008 11:53 AM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season typhoon_tip   Sat May 24 2008 02:40 PM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season craigm   Fri May 23 2008 07:23 PM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season allan   Fri May 23 2008 05:42 PM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season scottsvb   Fri May 23 2008 03:00 AM
. * * Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season dem05   Fri May 23 2008 01:06 AM

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