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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland
Re: Bertha... Status Quo?
      Sat Jul 05 2008 10:41 AM

It really depends on the model as to how far west it will be pushed. GFS (7/5, 06 run) is showing that it will recurve on the western edge of the high in about a week, keeping it out to sea. In comparison, NOGAPS (7/5, 00 run) is keeping the high stronger and further west, taking the storm on a track toward Cuba.

This time period is too far out for accurate forecasts though. When you have two of the major models used for global weather forecasting showing completely opposing solutions at that time range, you can pretty much toss both out and say we have no clue what will happen.

About all that I can tell from the models right now is that Bertha is going to maintain Tropical Storm status for the next few days until it hits more favorable solutions, and then possibly intensify.

I think all of us here on the east coast hope the high pressure ridge weakens, as the GFS calls for.

References:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands MikeCAdministrator Sat Jul 05 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Hurricane Bertha John C   Mon Jul 07 2008 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands LDH892   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Random Chaos   Sun Jul 06 2008 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands LoisCane   Sun Jul 06 2008 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands cieldumort   Sun Jul 06 2008 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying Random Chaos   Sun Jul 06 2008 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying Random Chaos   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying weatherguy08   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:44 PM
. * * Bertha intensifying craigm   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather Genesis   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather LDH892   Sun Jul 06 2008 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather scottsvb   Sun Jul 06 2008 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather WeatherNut   Sun Jul 06 2008 01:57 PM
. * * Accuweather craigm   Sun Jul 06 2008 01:17 PM
. * * Central Atlantic...Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 06 2008 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands scottsvb   Sat Jul 05 2008 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands weatherguy08   Sat Jul 05 2008 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 05 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands hurricaneguy   Sat Jul 05 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 05 2008 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? Random Chaos   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? flanewscameraman   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? craigm   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? DarleneCane   Sat Jul 05 2008 09:19 AM
. * * Bertha... Status Quo? danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 04 2008 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Bertha strengthening? LoisCane   Fri Jul 04 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Bertha strengthening? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 04 2008 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands cieldumort   Fri Jul 04 2008 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 03 2008 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis MichaelA   Thu Jul 03 2008 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis JustMe   Thu Jul 03 2008 11:01 AM
. * * Surprisingly Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 03 2008 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Watching Systems in the Eastern Caribbean and Far East Atlantic cieldumort   Thu Jul 03 2008 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Random Chaos   Wed Jul 02 2008 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Hugh   Wed Jul 02 2008 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Random Chaos   Wed Jul 02 2008 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 02 2008 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Rich B   Wed Jul 02 2008 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic cieldumort   Wed Jul 02 2008 04:38 PM

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