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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 121
Re: Accuweather
      Sun Jul 06 2008 04:17 PM

I dunno....

When I look at the GFDL solution it is predicated on the ridge breaking down and the high retrograding NE by several hundred miles.

I find the CMC's solution rather interesting too - but not persuasive. It keys on a couple of VERY strong impulses north of the Canadian border that allow the ridge to buckle northward and while it takes Bertha almost to the Bahamas before it turns her, it then takes her poleward from there.

NoGaps has an even odder solution, with a massive high coming off the eastern seaboard, basically "pincing" Bertha between the Bermuda high and it, forcing it northward. But that one I buy - if the high shows up in 4-5 days and intensifies as it predicts.

The Wv loop gives some cred to this latter view - but IMHO the movement is too fast. And that, ultimately looks to be the key - if the connection is missed and the trough exits before Bertha gets where it can be influenced, the ridge will rebuild behind that and block polward movement.

So the slower and weaker she is, the more likely she remains westward-bound. Strength and especially speed likely gets her into the connection zone where she can be sucked into the gap as the ridge breaks, and out she'll go.

This far out I wouldn't even attach a probability on an impact on the ConUS, although were I in Bermuda I'd be a lot more nervous than being on the East Coast!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 06 2008 04:17 PM
. * * Hurricane Bertha John C   Mon Jul 07 2008 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands LDH892   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Random Chaos   Sun Jul 06 2008 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands LoisCane   Sun Jul 06 2008 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands cieldumort   Sun Jul 06 2008 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying Random Chaos   Sun Jul 06 2008 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying Random Chaos   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying weatherguy08   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Bertha intensifying Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:44 PM
. * * Bertha intensifying craigm   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather Genesis   Sun Jul 06 2008 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather Hugh   Sun Jul 06 2008 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather LDH892   Sun Jul 06 2008 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather scottsvb   Sun Jul 06 2008 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Accuweather WeatherNut   Sun Jul 06 2008 01:57 PM
. * * Accuweather craigm   Sun Jul 06 2008 01:17 PM
. * * Central Atlantic...Sunday danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 06 2008 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands scottsvb   Sat Jul 05 2008 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands weatherguy08   Sat Jul 05 2008 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 05 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands hurricaneguy   Sat Jul 05 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 05 2008 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? Random Chaos   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? flanewscameraman   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? craigm   Sat Jul 05 2008 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Bertha... Status Quo? DarleneCane   Sat Jul 05 2008 09:19 AM
. * * Bertha... Status Quo? danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 04 2008 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Bertha strengthening? LoisCane   Fri Jul 04 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Bertha strengthening? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 04 2008 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands cieldumort   Fri Jul 04 2008 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 03 2008 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis MichaelA   Thu Jul 03 2008 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Surprising Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis JustMe   Thu Jul 03 2008 11:01 AM
. * * Surprisingly Early Cape Verde Cyclogenesis CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 03 2008 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Watching Systems in the Eastern Caribbean and Far East Atlantic cieldumort   Thu Jul 03 2008 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Random Chaos   Wed Jul 02 2008 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Hugh   Wed Jul 02 2008 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Random Chaos   Wed Jul 02 2008 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 02 2008 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic Rich B   Wed Jul 02 2008 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching System in the Far East Atlantic cieldumort   Wed Jul 02 2008 04:38 PM

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