Please be a little more cautious on your intensity forecasts - especially when rationale is not provided. Remember that 'gut feeling' forecasts belong in the Forecast Lounge.
Over the last 4 hours Bertha has continued to wobble along to the northwest (310 degrees) at 10 knots forward speed. IR imagery shows that the cloud tops have warmed slightly, so additional intensification of another 15 knots to reach Cat IV is not very likely. Modest upper level wind shear continues to impinge on the northwest quadrant of the hurricane - another factor against additional intensification in the short term. ED
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