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Actually I think that you have made two good observations. The convective flareup appears to be to the south and southwest of the center, although pinpointing the center on IR imagery is always difficult. At 09/00Z I think that the center was around 23.0N 55.4W which would indicate more of a west northwest movement over the past three hours. Since the steering currents are quite weak, it could be just a temporary thing - or its also possible that the ridge to the north may have strengthen somewhat and the trough might have weakened somewhat. It will take a few more hours of observation. Also possible that the flareup itself nudged a slightly more westerly component to the track direction, but all the more reason why Bermuda needs to monitor Bertha's slow progress.
Cheers,
ED

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Is it not true that track changes need 6 hours to confirm at the TPC? Am noticing that the 11pm discussion does not pick up on what seems to be a westward straddling of the 23rd parallel. I have also noticed a slowing of the forward motion. It does 'seem' upon satellite (IR, which as you said is difficult to use for these scenarios) that Bertha has resumed a more west motion. However, that could be 'optics' in that she burst convection somewhat, and the curl around the circulation makes the appearance of that west motion - though perhaps not really happening? Tough call.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Jul 08 2008 11:31 PM)

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