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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Idalia) , Major: 229 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 229 (Idalia) Major: 229 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest
      Wed Jul 09 2008 05:11 AM

IR can be so deceptive. It now looks more like there were just some spacial artifacts created when Bertha blew up some additional convection and blew off some tops, earlier.

With the aid of an AMSRE composite from 0521Z, and pairing that with what looks to be some deep convection making a partial ring, I'm betting that a nearly northwest motion is right on target. 5AM discussion out of NHC shows that they are certainly going with this.

As for initial intensity as well as thermal structure, right now it appears that the HWRF is about the only model that is close to spot-on, and it also indicates an entirely believable re-intensification.. to at least a solid Cat 2 (and given this cyclone's history, Cat 3/4 looks to be entirely back in the realm of the very possible). The ULL to her west continues moving even farther away from her, and on her current heading, shear is relaxing, and outflow improving.

If Bertha does indeed spend at least the next five to seven days in the western Atlantic fluctuating in intensity between Cat 1 and major hurricane, she'll have added one heck of a sizable number to this season's ACE. This would simply be an amazing feat for an early season tropical cyclone, and something we haven't seen since 2005.



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Subject Posted by Posted on
* A few changes with Bertha John C Wed Jul 09 2008 05:11 AM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha Hugh   Fri Jul 11 2008 10:11 PM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha typhoon_tip   Fri Jul 11 2008 09:27 PM
. * * Re: A few changes with Bertha ~Floydbuster   Fri Jul 11 2008 07:27 PM
. * * Re:new way to look Gigsley   Fri Jul 11 2008 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Question LoisCane   Fri Jul 11 2008 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Question Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 11 2008 11:54 AM
. * * Question Beach   Thu Jul 10 2008 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest LoisCane   Thu Jul 10 2008 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 10 2008 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Ed in Va   Thu Jul 10 2008 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 10 2008 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Treymont   Thu Jul 10 2008 11:41 AM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 10 2008 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 10 2008 05:23 AM
. * * Bertha back to a Category Two neospaceblue   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest JoshuaK   Wed Jul 09 2008 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest Rich B   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha regaining some strength. Still Moving Northwest cieldumort   Wed Jul 09 2008 03:26 PM
. * * Discussion Heads Up danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 01:15 PM
. * * Definite strengthening signaled by satellite... typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:51 PM
. * * Bertha Influences?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Weakening Now Moving Northwest Rich B   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Weakening Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving WNW ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving WNW SATBEACH   Wed Jul 09 2008 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest cieldumort   Wed Jul 09 2008 05:11 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest WhitherWeather   Wed Jul 09 2008 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:58 AM
. * * Bertha Weakening. Robert   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LDH892   Wed Jul 09 2008 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest typhoon_tip   Tue Jul 08 2008 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jul 08 2008 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Tue Jul 08 2008 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest M.A.   Tue Jul 08 2008 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Tue Jul 08 2008 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest LoisCane   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Robert   Mon Jul 07 2008 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Hugh   Mon Jul 07 2008 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Hugh   Mon Jul 07 2008 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch LoisCane   Mon Jul 07 2008 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch M.A.   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Hugh   Mon Jul 07 2008 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 07 2008 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2008 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch allan   Mon Jul 07 2008 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch scottsvb   Mon Jul 07 2008 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 07 2008 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Forms in Atlantic, Bermuda needs to Watch allan   Mon Jul 07 2008 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha chase 22   Mon Jul 07 2008 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha Fr33z3y   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha scottsvb   Mon Jul 07 2008 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 07 2008 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha craigm   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Bertha cieldumort   Mon Jul 07 2008 07:41 AM

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