IR can be so deceptive. It now looks more like there were just some spacial artifacts created when Bertha blew up some additional convection and blew off some tops, earlier.
With the aid of an AMSRE composite from 0521Z, and pairing that with what looks to be some deep convection making a partial ring, I'm betting that a nearly northwest motion is right on target. 5AM discussion out of NHC shows that they are certainly going with this.
As for initial intensity as well as thermal structure, right now it appears that the HWRF is about the only model that is close to spot-on, and it also indicates an entirely believable re-intensification.. to at least a solid Cat 2 (and given this cyclone's history, Cat 3/4 looks to be entirely back in the realm of the very possible). The ULL to her west continues moving even farther away from her, and on her current heading, shear is relaxing, and outflow improving.
If Bertha does indeed spend at least the next five to seven days in the western Atlantic fluctuating in intensity between Cat 1 and major hurricane, she'll have added one heck of a sizable number to this season's ACE. This would simply be an amazing feat for an early season tropical cyclone, and something we haven't seen since 2005.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 23236
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center