Looking at 92L tonight, the path ahead and the models right now. I think this is an either it does or it doesn't type of system, there will be no in between. In other words, if it develops I see nothing in the way of allowing this to become a strong storm (as a scary GFDL shows) or it may never develop at all as some of the other models are showing.
It is a long way out and it still has to actually develop but being in eastern NC, I have seen storms before go into the Bahamas and make that turn to us. The last few frames of the GFDL show a NNW movement and IF, IF, IF there is a Fay at that time, there does not appear to be a high in place to keep it going straight west.
Next Recon will be very important. Either way not too early for all along east coast to start paying attention.
-------------------- Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4
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