something the nhc said in their 11pm discussion has got me wondering about my initial thoughts on td 6. as soon as i saw that the system had developed, i went and checked the upper level winds and saw the trough currently across the northern caribbean.. said to myself 'fine for a couple of days, shear down the road'. the discussion mentions that models pull the trough out, but were also forecast to pull out with claudette and didnt until theyd kept claudette from ever becoming very powerful. still thinking that shear will play a role in.. what will be erika's life early next week. going with the north side of the guidance envelope.
as for whether it tries to curve up around florida or heads towards mexico or the gulf days from now.. big factors to look for there is how quickly it moves and how strong it gets. if one model seems shaded towards what this storm tends to do.. throw your money on it.
notes on other areas of interest:
danny is now ripped up and suffocating.. it's just a question of how much integrity it can keep until it moves back into a supporting environment. go for broke, danny.
the wave following td 6 has a itcz/wind shift line generating convection just ahead of it.. the turning around danny is probably enhancing it. might be another low developing back there if the convergence continues in this manner. globals are about as suggestive with it as they were with the current system.. read what you will into that.
the other area of interest is the subtropical waters off the SE US... plenty of convective areas related to the trough dug in are roaming around.. watch for mccs that may drift offshore.. and for any type of low that tries to form in the baroclinic zone off the east coast. there will probably be more low level convergence over the area over the next few days.. though sfc pressures are high.
active time we're in. geeze atlantic, save some for august.
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